Cisco Systems Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 47.92

CSCO Stock  USD 47.92  0.32  0.66%   
Cisco Systems' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Cisco Systems. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Cisco Systems based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Cisco Systems over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $48.0 is a CALL option contract on Cisco Systems' common stock with a strick price of 48.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-04-16 at 15:59:48 for $0.34 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.34, and an ask price of $0.36. The implied volatility as of the 17th of April 2024 is 26.56. View All Cisco options

Closest to current price Cisco long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Cisco Systems' future price is the expected price of Cisco Systems instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Cisco Systems performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Cisco Systems Backtesting, Cisco Systems Valuation, Cisco Systems Correlation, Cisco Systems Hype Analysis, Cisco Systems Volatility, Cisco Systems History as well as Cisco Systems Performance.
To learn how to invest in Cisco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cisco Systems guide.
  
At this time, Cisco Systems' Price Fair Value is very stable compared to the past year. Please specify Cisco Systems' target price for which you would like Cisco Systems odds to be computed.

Cisco Systems Target Price Odds to finish over 47.92

The tendency of Cisco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 47.92 90 days 47.92 
about 91.03
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cisco Systems to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 91.03 (This Cisco Systems probability density function shows the probability of Cisco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cisco Systems has a beta of 0.78 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cisco Systems average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cisco Systems will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cisco Systems has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   Cisco Systems Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cisco Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cisco Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cisco Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
46.7747.8848.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
43.1352.1253.23
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
50.4055.3961.48
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.780.780.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cisco Systems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cisco Systems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cisco Systems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cisco Systems.

Cisco Systems Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cisco Systems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cisco Systems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cisco Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cisco Systems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.11
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.78
σ
Overall volatility
1.05
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Cisco Systems Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cisco Systems for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cisco Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cisco Systems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Cisco Systems is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Cisco Systems has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from fool.com.au: 3 reasons I think this fantastic ASX ETF is a top buy

Cisco Systems Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cisco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cisco Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cisco Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments26.1 B

Cisco Systems Technical Analysis

Cisco Systems' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cisco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cisco Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cisco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Cisco Systems Predictive Forecast Models

Cisco Systems' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cisco Systems' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cisco Systems' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Cisco Systems

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cisco Systems for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cisco Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cisco Systems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Cisco Systems is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Cisco Systems has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from fool.com.au: 3 reasons I think this fantastic ASX ETF is a top buy
When determining whether Cisco Systems offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cisco Systems' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cisco Systems Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cisco Systems Stock:
Check out Cisco Systems Backtesting, Cisco Systems Valuation, Cisco Systems Correlation, Cisco Systems Hype Analysis, Cisco Systems Volatility, Cisco Systems History as well as Cisco Systems Performance.
To learn how to invest in Cisco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cisco Systems guide.
Note that the Cisco Systems information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cisco Systems' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

Complementary Tools for Cisco Stock analysis

When running Cisco Systems' price analysis, check to measure Cisco Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cisco Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Cisco Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cisco Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cisco Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cisco Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cisco Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cisco Systems. If investors know Cisco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cisco Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.03)
Dividend Share
1.56
Earnings Share
3.29
Revenue Per Share
14.067
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Cisco Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cisco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cisco Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cisco Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cisco Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cisco Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cisco Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cisco Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cisco Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.