Calvert Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 21.69

CVMAX -  USA Fund  

USD 21.69  0.18  0.84%

Calvert Emerging's future price is the expected price of Calvert Emerging instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Calvert Emerging Markets performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

Calvert Price Probability 

 
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Continue to Calvert Emerging Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Calvert Emerging Correlation, Calvert Emerging Hype Analysis, Calvert Emerging Volatility, Calvert Emerging History as well as Calvert Emerging Performance. Please specify Calvert Emerging time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Calvert Emerging odds to be computed.
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Calvert Emerging Target Price Odds to finish over 21.69

The tendency of Calvert Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 21.69 90 days 21.69  about 36.66
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Calvert Emerging to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 36.66 (This Calvert Emerging Markets probability density function shows the probability of Calvert Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Calvert Emerging has a beta of 0.53 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Calvert Emerging average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Calvert Emerging Markets will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Calvert Emerging Markets is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Calvert Emerging Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Calvert Emerging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Calvert Emerging Markets. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Calvert Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Calvert Emerging in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
20.7221.6922.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.6721.6422.61
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
21.2422.2123.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
20.5121.1421.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Calvert Emerging. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Calvert Emerging's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Calvert Emerging's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Calvert Emerging Markets.

Calvert Emerging Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Calvert Emerging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Calvert Emerging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Calvert Emerging Markets, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Calvert Emerging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.06
β
Beta against DOW0.53
σ
Overall volatility
0.44
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Calvert Emerging Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Calvert Emerging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Calvert Emerging Markets can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Calvert Emerging generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund holds 98.03% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Calvert Emerging Technical Analysis

Calvert Emerging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Calvert Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Calvert Emerging Markets. In general, you should focus on analyzing Calvert Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Calvert Emerging Predictive Forecast Models

Calvert Emerging time-series forecasting models is one of many Calvert Emerging's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Calvert Emerging's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Calvert Emerging Markets

Checking the ongoing alerts about Calvert Emerging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Calvert Emerging Markets help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Calvert Emerging Alerts

Calvert Emerging Alerts and Suggestions

Calvert Emerging generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund holds 98.03% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Continue to Calvert Emerging Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Calvert Emerging Correlation, Calvert Emerging Hype Analysis, Calvert Emerging Volatility, Calvert Emerging History as well as Calvert Emerging Performance. Note that the Calvert Emerging Markets information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Calvert Emerging's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Calvert Mutual Fund analysis

When running Calvert Emerging Markets price analysis, check to measure Calvert Emerging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Calvert Emerging is operating at the current time. Most of Calvert Emerging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Calvert Emerging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Calvert Emerging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Calvert Emerging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Calvert Emerging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Calvert Emerging value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Calvert Emerging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.