Chevron Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 158.04

CVX Stock  USD 158.04  2.45  1.57%   
Chevron Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Chevron Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Chevron Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Chevron Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2024-07-19 CALL at $157.5 is a CALL option contract on Chevron Corp's common stock with a strick price of 157.5 expiring on 2024-07-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-07-12 at 15:58:43 for $0.74 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.76, and an ask price of $0.83. The implied volatility as of the 15th of July 2024 is 19.46. View All Chevron options

Closest to current price Chevron long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Chevron Corp's future price is the expected price of Chevron Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Chevron Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Chevron Corp Backtesting, Chevron Corp Valuation, Chevron Corp Correlation, Chevron Corp Hype Analysis, Chevron Corp Volatility, Chevron Corp History as well as Chevron Corp Performance.
For more information on how to buy Chevron Stock please use our How to Invest in Chevron Corp guide.
  
At this time, Chevron Corp's Price Earnings Ratio is fairly stable compared to the past year. Price Book Value Ratio is likely to rise to 2.06 in 2024, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 0.90 in 2024. Please specify Chevron Corp's target price for which you would like Chevron Corp odds to be computed.

Chevron Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 158.04

The tendency of Chevron Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 158.04 90 days 158.04 
about 51.13
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chevron Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 51.13 (This Chevron Corp probability density function shows the probability of Chevron Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Chevron Corp has a beta of 0.95 suggesting Chevron Corp market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Chevron Corp is expected to follow. Additionally Chevron Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Chevron Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Chevron Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chevron Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chevron Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
154.52155.60156.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
140.03167.64168.72
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
153.00154.07155.15
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
162.13178.17197.77
Details

Chevron Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chevron Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chevron Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chevron Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chevron Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.08
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.95
σ
Overall volatility
3.17
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Chevron Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chevron Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chevron Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chevron Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 10th of June 2024 Chevron Corp paid $ 1.63 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Transformer Oil Market size is set to grow by USD 1.12 billion from 2024-2028, Expansion of T and D to boost the market growth, Technavio

Chevron Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chevron Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chevron Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chevron Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.9 B
Cash And Short Term Investments8.5 B

Chevron Corp Technical Analysis

Chevron Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chevron Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chevron Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chevron Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Chevron Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Chevron Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chevron Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chevron Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Chevron Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Chevron Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chevron Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chevron Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 10th of June 2024 Chevron Corp paid $ 1.63 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Transformer Oil Market size is set to grow by USD 1.12 billion from 2024-2028, Expansion of T and D to boost the market growth, Technavio

Additional Tools for Chevron Stock Analysis

When running Chevron Corp's price analysis, check to measure Chevron Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chevron Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Chevron Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chevron Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chevron Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chevron Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.