Walt Disney Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 93.96

DIS Stock  USD 122.36  1.38  1.14%   
Disney's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Walt Disney. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Disney based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Walt Disney over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $122.0 is a CALL option contract on Disney's common stock with a strick price of 122.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:59:14 for $0.19 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.14, and an ask price of $0.25. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 21.98. View All Disney options

Closest to current price Disney long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Disney's future price is the expected price of Disney instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Walt Disney performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Disney Backtesting, Disney Valuation, Disney Correlation, Disney Hype Analysis, Disney Volatility, Disney History as well as Disney Performance.
  
At this time, Disney's Price Earnings Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price To Sales Ratio is likely to gain to 1.84 in 2024, whereas Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to drop 11.20 in 2024. Please specify Disney's target price for which you would like Disney odds to be computed.

Disney Target Price Odds to finish below 93.96

The tendency of Disney Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 93.96  or more in 90 days
 122.36 90 days 93.96 
about 18.62
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Disney to drop to $ 93.96  or more in 90 days from now is about 18.62 (This Walt Disney probability density function shows the probability of Disney Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Walt Disney price to stay between $ 93.96  and its current price of $122.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.52 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Disney has a beta of 0.54 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Disney average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Walt Disney will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Walt Disney has an alpha of 0.3543, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Disney Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Disney

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Walt Disney. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Disney's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
119.84121.76123.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
114.67116.59133.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
124.21126.12128.04
Details
30 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
90.5899.54110.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Disney. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Disney's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Disney's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Walt Disney.

Disney Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Disney is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Disney's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Walt Disney, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Disney within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.35
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.54
σ
Overall volatility
10.12
Ir
Information ratio 0.16

Disney Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Disney for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Walt Disney can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Time to Buy Disneys Stock for Higher Highs

Disney Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Disney Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Disney's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Disney's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.8 B
Cash And Short Term Investments14.2 B

Disney Technical Analysis

Disney's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Disney Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Walt Disney. In general, you should focus on analyzing Disney Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Disney Predictive Forecast Models

Disney's time-series forecasting models is one of many Disney's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Disney's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Walt Disney

Checking the ongoing alerts about Disney for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Walt Disney help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Time to Buy Disneys Stock for Higher Highs
When determining whether Walt Disney is a strong investment it is important to analyze Disney's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Disney's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Disney Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Disney Stock analysis

When running Disney's price analysis, check to measure Disney's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Disney is operating at the current time. Most of Disney's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Disney's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Disney's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Disney to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Is Disney's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Disney. If investors know Disney will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Disney listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.486
Dividend Share
0.3
Earnings Share
1.63
Revenue Per Share
48.605
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.002
The market value of Walt Disney is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Disney that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Disney's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Disney's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Disney's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Disney's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Disney's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Disney is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Disney's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.