Dollar Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 142.45

DLTR Stock

USD 142.45 5.79 4.24%

Dollar Tree's future price is the expected price of Dollar Tree instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Dollar Tree performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 05/29/2023, Price to Book Value is likely to grow to 6.31. Also, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 23.79.

Dollar Tree's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Dollar Tree. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Dollar Tree based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Dollar Tree over a specific time period. For example, 2023-06-02 CALL at $142.0 is a CALL option contract on Dollar Tree's common stock with a strick price of 142.0 expiring on 2023-06-02. The contract was last traded on 2023-05-26 at 15:58:25 for $2.41 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.26, and an ask price of $2.4. The implied volatility as of the 29th of May is 27.96. View All Dollar options

Closest to current price Dollar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Check out Dollar Tree Backtesting, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Volatility, Dollar Tree History as well as Dollar Tree Performance. To learn how to invest in Dollar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Dollar Tree guide.Please specify Dollar Tree time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Dollar Tree odds to be computed.

Dollar Tree Target Price Odds to finish over 142.45

The tendency of Dollar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.

Current Price	Horizon	Target Price	Odds to move above the current price in 90 days
142.45	90 days	142.45	about 79.69

Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dollar Tree to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 79.69 (This Dollar Tree probability density function shows the probability of Dollar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Dollar Tree has a beta of 0.65 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Dollar Tree average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Dollar Tree will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0604, implying that it can generate a 0.0604 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).

Dollar Tree Price Density

Price

Predictive Modules for Dollar Tree

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar Tree. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dollar Tree's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Dollar Tree in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated	High
140.35	142.44	144.53

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real	High
128.20	151.67	153.76

Details

Naive

Forecast

Low	Next	High
132.36	134.45	136.53

Details

16 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target	High
109.00	158.08	187.00

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dollar Tree. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dollar Tree's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dollar Tree's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dollar Tree.

Dollar Tree Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dollar Tree is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dollar Tree's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dollar Tree, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dollar Tree within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.

α	Alpha over NYSE Composite	0.06	Details
β	Beta against NYSE Composite	0.65	Details
σ	Overall volatility	6.91	Details
Ir	Information ratio	0.038492	Details

Dollar Tree Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dollar Tree for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dollar Tree can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

	Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
	Dollar Tree is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	Dollar Tree has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
	Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
	Latest headline from valuewalk.com: Dollar Tree Falls As Theft Cuts Into Bottom Line

Dollar Tree Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dollar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dollar Tree's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dollar Tree's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	224.1 M
	Cash And Short Term Investments	642.8 M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

Dollar Tree's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dollar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dollar Tree. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dollar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

Dollar Tree Predictive Forecast Models

Dollar Tree's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dollar Tree's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dollar Tree's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Dollar Tree

Checking the ongoing alerts about Dollar Tree for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dollar Tree help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

	Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
	Dollar Tree is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	Dollar Tree has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
	Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
	Latest headline from valuewalk.com: Dollar Tree Falls As Theft Cuts Into Bottom Line

Check out Dollar Tree Backtesting, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Volatility, Dollar Tree History as well as Dollar Tree Performance. To learn how to invest in Dollar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Dollar Tree guide. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

Complementary Tools for Dollar Stock analysis

When running Dollar Tree's price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

	Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
	Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
	Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
	Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
	Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
	Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
	Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
	Commodity Channel Index Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
	Commodity Channel Index Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
	Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
	Pair Correlation Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
	Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets

Is Dollar Tree's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dollar Tree. If investors know Dollar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dollar Tree listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

(0.43)

Earnings Share

6.34

Revenue Per Share

129.43

Quarterly Revenue Growth

0.061

Return On Assets

0.054

The market value of Dollar Tree is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dollar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dollar Tree's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dollar Tree's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dollar Tree's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dollar Tree's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Dollar Tree's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dollar Tree is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dollar Tree's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party. Check out Dollar Tree Backtesting, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Volatility, Dollar Tree History as well as Dollar Tree Performance. To learn how to invest in Dollar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Dollar Tree guide.

Macroaxis helps investors of all levels and skills to maximize the upside of all their holdings and minimize the risk associated with market volatility, economic swings, and company-specific events. View terms and conditions

Feedback Blog

Made with optimal in San Francisco

2023 Macroaxis LLC

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

Dollar Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 142.45

Closest to current price Dollar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Dollar Tree Target Price Odds to finish over 142.45

Predictive Modules for Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree Risk Indicators

Dollar Tree Alerts and Suggestions

Dollar Tree Price Density Drivers

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

Dollar Tree Predictive Forecast Models

Things to note about Dollar Tree

Complementary Tools for Dollar Stock analysis

COMMON DESTINATIONS

MAIN CATEGORIES

COMPANY