Dollar Tree Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 69.46

DLTR Stock  USD 69.46  1.44  2.03%   
Dollar Tree's future price is the expected price of Dollar Tree instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Dollar Tree performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Dollar Tree Backtesting, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Volatility, Dollar Tree History as well as Dollar Tree Performance.
To learn how to invest in Dollar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Dollar Tree guide.
  
At this time, Dollar Tree's Price To Sales Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 10/08/2024, Price Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 17.92, while Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to drop 39.17. Please specify Dollar Tree's target price for which you would like Dollar Tree odds to be computed.

Dollar Tree Target Price Odds to finish over 69.46

The tendency of Dollar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 69.46 90 days 69.46 
about 89.76
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dollar Tree to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 89.76 (This Dollar Tree probability density function shows the probability of Dollar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Dollar Tree has a beta of 0.83 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Dollar Tree average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Dollar Tree will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Dollar Tree has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Dollar Tree Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Dollar Tree

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar Tree. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dollar Tree's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
64.0267.8071.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
62.5185.3089.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
65.0668.8472.62
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
136.65150.17166.69
Details

Dollar Tree Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dollar Tree is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dollar Tree's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dollar Tree, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dollar Tree within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.66
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.83
σ
Overall volatility
15.30
Ir
Information ratio -0.18

Dollar Tree Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dollar Tree for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dollar Tree can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Dollar Tree has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 30.6 B. Net Loss for the year was (998.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.94 B.
Dollar Tree has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from cnbc.com: Activist firm Mantle Ridge has 1 billion-plus stake in Air Products

Dollar Tree Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dollar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dollar Tree's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dollar Tree's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding219.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments684.9 M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

Dollar Tree's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dollar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dollar Tree. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dollar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Dollar Tree Predictive Forecast Models

Dollar Tree's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dollar Tree's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dollar Tree's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Dollar Tree

Checking the ongoing alerts about Dollar Tree for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dollar Tree help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Dollar Tree has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 30.6 B. Net Loss for the year was (998.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.94 B.
Dollar Tree has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from cnbc.com: Activist firm Mantle Ridge has 1 billion-plus stake in Air Products

Additional Tools for Dollar Stock Analysis

When running Dollar Tree's price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.