DNLRX Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 74.89

DNLRX -  USA Fund  

USD 71.67  0.15  0.21%

BNY Mellon's future price is the expected price of BNY Mellon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of BNY Mellon Active performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

DNLRX Price Probability 

 
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Continue to BNY Mellon Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, BNY Mellon Correlation, BNY Mellon Hype Analysis, BNY Mellon Volatility, BNY Mellon History as well as BNY Mellon Performance. Please specify BNY Mellon time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like BNY Mellon odds to be computed.
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BNY Mellon Target Price Odds to finish over 74.89

The tendency of DNLRX Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 74.89  or more in 90 days
 71.67 90 days 74.89  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BNY Mellon to move over $ 74.89  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This BNY Mellon Active probability density function shows the probability of DNLRX Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BNY Mellon Active price to stay between its current price of $ 71.67  and $ 74.89  at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.12 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon BNY Mellon has a beta of 0.95 suggesting BNY Mellon Active market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, BNY Mellon is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0506, implying that it can generate a 0.0506 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 BNY Mellon Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for BNY Mellon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BNY Mellon Active. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BNY Mellon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BNY Mellon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
70.9371.6772.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
64.5072.9373.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
72.0472.7873.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
70.2571.1171.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BNY Mellon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BNY Mellon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BNY Mellon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BNY Mellon Active.

BNY Mellon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BNY Mellon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BNY Mellon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BNY Mellon Active, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BNY Mellon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.05
β
Beta against DOW0.95
σ
Overall volatility
0.99
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

BNY Mellon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BNY Mellon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BNY Mellon Active can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund generated three year return of -1.0%
BNY Mellon Active retains 99.37% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

BNY Mellon Technical Analysis

BNY Mellon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. DNLRX Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BNY Mellon Active. In general, you should focus on analyzing DNLRX Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

BNY Mellon Predictive Forecast Models

BNY Mellon time-series forecasting models is one of many BNY Mellon's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary BNY Mellon's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about BNY Mellon Active

Checking the ongoing alerts about BNY Mellon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BNY Mellon Active help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

BNY Mellon Alerts

BNY Mellon Alerts and Suggestions

The fund generated three year return of -1.0%
BNY Mellon Active retains 99.37% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Continue to BNY Mellon Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, BNY Mellon Correlation, BNY Mellon Hype Analysis, BNY Mellon Volatility, BNY Mellon History as well as BNY Mellon Performance. Note that the BNY Mellon Active information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BNY Mellon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

Complementary Tools for DNLRX Mutual Fund analysis

When running BNY Mellon Active price analysis, check to measure BNY Mellon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BNY Mellon is operating at the current time. Most of BNY Mellon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BNY Mellon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BNY Mellon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BNY Mellon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between BNY Mellon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine BNY Mellon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BNY Mellon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.