Dreyfus Active Midcap Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 70.28

DNLYX Fund  USD 59.43  0.04  0.07%   
Dreyfus Active's future price is the expected price of Dreyfus Active instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Dreyfus Active Midcap performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Dreyfus Active Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Dreyfus Active Correlation, Dreyfus Active Hype Analysis, Dreyfus Active Volatility, Dreyfus Active History as well as Dreyfus Active Performance.
  
Please specify Dreyfus Active's target price for which you would like Dreyfus Active odds to be computed.

Dreyfus Active Target Price Odds to finish below 70.28

The tendency of Dreyfus Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 70.28  after 90 days
 59.43 90 days 70.28 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dreyfus Active to stay under $ 70.28  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Dreyfus Active Midcap probability density function shows the probability of Dreyfus Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dreyfus Active Midcap price to stay between its current price of $ 59.43  and $ 70.28  at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.21 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.18 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Dreyfus Active will likely underperform. Additionally Dreyfus Active Midcap has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Dreyfus Active Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Active

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Active Midcap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dreyfus Active's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
58.6859.4360.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.0058.7559.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dreyfus Active. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dreyfus Active's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dreyfus Active's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dreyfus Active Midcap.

Dreyfus Active Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dreyfus Active is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dreyfus Active's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dreyfus Active Midcap, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dreyfus Active within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.18
σ
Overall volatility
1.92
Ir
Information ratio -0.0069

Dreyfus Active Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dreyfus Active for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dreyfus Active Midcap can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund retains 99.44% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Dreyfus Active Technical Analysis

Dreyfus Active's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dreyfus Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dreyfus Active Midcap. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dreyfus Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Dreyfus Active Predictive Forecast Models

Dreyfus Active's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dreyfus Active's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dreyfus Active's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Dreyfus Active Midcap

Checking the ongoing alerts about Dreyfus Active for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dreyfus Active Midcap help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund retains 99.44% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Check out Dreyfus Active Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Dreyfus Active Correlation, Dreyfus Active Hype Analysis, Dreyfus Active Volatility, Dreyfus Active History as well as Dreyfus Active Performance.
You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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When running Dreyfus Active's price analysis, check to measure Dreyfus Active's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dreyfus Active is operating at the current time. Most of Dreyfus Active's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dreyfus Active's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dreyfus Active's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dreyfus Active to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Dreyfus Active's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dreyfus Active is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dreyfus Active's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.