Krispy Kreme Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.16
| DNUT Stock | USD 13.17 0.20 1.50% |
Closest to current price Krispy long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Krispy |
Krispy Kreme Target Price Odds to finish below 12.16
The tendency of Krispy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.16 or more in 90 days |
| 13.17 | 90 days | 12.16 | about 9.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Krispy Kreme to drop to $ 12.16 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.93 (This Krispy Kreme probability density function shows the probability of Krispy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Krispy Kreme price to stay between $ 12.16 and its current price of $13.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.17 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Krispy Kreme has a beta of 0.11 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Krispy Kreme average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Krispy Kreme will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Krispy Kreme has an alpha of 0.0654, implying that it can generate a 0.0654 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Krispy Kreme Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Krispy Kreme
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Krispy Kreme. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Krispy Kreme's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Krispy Kreme Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Krispy Kreme is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Krispy Kreme's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Krispy Kreme, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Krispy Kreme within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.001 |
Krispy Kreme Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Krispy Kreme for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Krispy Kreme can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Krispy Kreme had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Krispy Kreme has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company currently holds 1.4 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.96, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Krispy Kreme has a current ratio of 0.33, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Krispy Kreme until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Krispy Kreme's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Krispy Kreme sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Krispy to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Krispy Kreme's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.69 B. Net Loss for the year was (37.92 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 419.38 M. | |
| Krispy Kreme has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 54.0% of Krispy Kreme shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investorplace.com: Forget the Noise Buy These 3 Unfairly Punished Stocks Before Earnings Euphoria Hits |
Krispy Kreme Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Krispy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Krispy Kreme's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Krispy Kreme's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 168.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.6 M |
Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis
Krispy Kreme's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Krispy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Krispy Kreme. In general, you should focus on analyzing Krispy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Krispy Kreme Predictive Forecast Models
Krispy Kreme's time-series forecasting models is one of many Krispy Kreme's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Krispy Kreme's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Krispy Kreme
Checking the ongoing alerts about Krispy Kreme for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Krispy Kreme help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Krispy Kreme had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Krispy Kreme has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company currently holds 1.4 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.96, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Krispy Kreme has a current ratio of 0.33, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Krispy Kreme until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Krispy Kreme's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Krispy Kreme sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Krispy to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Krispy Kreme's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.69 B. Net Loss for the year was (37.92 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 419.38 M. | |
| Krispy Kreme has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 54.0% of Krispy Kreme shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investorplace.com: Forget the Noise Buy These 3 Unfairly Punished Stocks Before Earnings Euphoria Hits |
Check out Krispy Kreme Backtesting, Krispy Kreme Valuation, Krispy Kreme Correlation, Krispy Kreme Hype Analysis, Krispy Kreme Volatility, Krispy Kreme History as well as Krispy Kreme Performance. For more information on how to buy Krispy Stock please use our How to Invest in Krispy Kreme guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Complementary Tools for Krispy Stock analysis
When running Krispy Kreme's price analysis, check to measure Krispy Kreme's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Krispy Kreme is operating at the current time. Most of Krispy Kreme's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Krispy Kreme's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Krispy Kreme's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Krispy Kreme to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Krispy Kreme's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Krispy Kreme. If investors know Krispy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Krispy Kreme listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 0.14 | Earnings Share (0.23) | Revenue Per Share 10.019 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.114 | Return On Assets 0.0062 |
The market value of Krispy Kreme is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Krispy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Krispy Kreme's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Krispy Kreme's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Krispy Kreme's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Krispy Kreme's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Krispy Kreme's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Krispy Kreme is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Krispy Kreme's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.