Darden Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 129.32

DRI
 Stock
  

USD 129.32  1.60  1.25%   

Darden Restaurants' future price is the expected price of Darden Restaurants instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Darden Restaurants performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Darden Restaurants' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Darden Restaurants. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Darden Restaurants based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Darden Restaurants over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $130.0 is a CALL option contract on Darden Restaurants' common stock with a strick price of 130.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-29 at 15:59:34 for $3.8 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.6, and an ask price of $3.9. The implied volatility as of the 30th of September is 33.5151. View All Darden options

Closest to current price Darden long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Darden Restaurants Backtesting, Darden Restaurants Valuation, Darden Restaurants Correlation, Darden Restaurants Hype Analysis, Darden Restaurants Volatility, Darden Restaurants History as well as Darden Restaurants Performance. Please specify Darden Restaurants time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Darden Restaurants odds to be computed.

Darden Restaurants Target Price Odds to finish over 129.32

The tendency of Darden Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 129.32 90 days 129.32 
about 20.56
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Darden Restaurants to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 20.56 (This Darden Restaurants probability density function shows the probability of Darden Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.18 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Darden Restaurants will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2923, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Darden Restaurants Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Darden Restaurants

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Darden Restaurants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Darden Restaurants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Darden Restaurants in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
126.83128.84130.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
116.39157.67159.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
120.86122.87124.88
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
147.00165.60185.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Darden Restaurants. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Darden Restaurants' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Darden Restaurants' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Darden Restaurants.

Darden Restaurants Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Darden Restaurants is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Darden Restaurants' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Darden Restaurants, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Darden Restaurants within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.29
β
Beta against DOW1.18
σ
Overall volatility
5.89
Ir
Information ratio 0.14

Darden Restaurants Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Darden Restaurants for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Darden Restaurants can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 5.93 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.87, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Darden Restaurants has a current ratio of 0.51, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Darden Restaurants until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Darden Restaurants' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Darden Restaurants sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Darden to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Darden Restaurants' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 93.0% of Darden Restaurants shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Texas Roadhouse Stock When The Financials Are As Good As The Steaks - Seeking Alpha

Darden Restaurants Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Darden Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Darden Restaurants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Darden Restaurants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date7th of July 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out3.90%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate4.51
Short Percent Of Float6.21%
Float Shares122.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.47M
Shares Short Prior Month4.85M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.13M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022

Darden Restaurants Technical Analysis

Darden Restaurants' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Darden Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Darden Restaurants. In general, you should focus on analyzing Darden Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Darden Restaurants Predictive Forecast Models

Darden Restaurants time-series forecasting models is one of many Darden Restaurants' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Darden Restaurants' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Darden Restaurants

Checking the ongoing alerts about Darden Restaurants for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Darden Restaurants help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 5.93 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.87, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Darden Restaurants has a current ratio of 0.51, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Darden Restaurants until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Darden Restaurants' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Darden Restaurants sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Darden to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Darden Restaurants' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 93.0% of Darden Restaurants shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Texas Roadhouse Stock When The Financials Are As Good As The Steaks - Seeking Alpha

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Darden Restaurants price analysis, check to measure Darden Restaurants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Darden Restaurants is operating at the current time. Most of Darden Restaurants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Darden Restaurants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Darden Restaurants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Darden Restaurants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Darden Restaurants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Darden Restaurants. If investors know Darden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Darden Restaurants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Darden Restaurants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Darden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Darden Restaurants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Darden Restaurants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Darden Restaurants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Darden Restaurants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Darden Restaurants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Darden Restaurants value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Darden Restaurants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.