Dynavax Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.23
DVAX Stock | USD 11.34 0.09 0.79% |
Closest to current price Dynavax long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Dynavax |
Dynavax Technologies Target Price Odds to finish below 14.23
The tendency of Dynavax Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 14.23 after 90 days |
11.34 | 90 days | 14.23 | about 99.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dynavax Technologies to stay under $ 14.23 after 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This Dynavax Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Dynavax Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dynavax Technologies price to stay between its current price of $ 11.34 and $ 14.23 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Dynavax Technologies has a beta of 0.54 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Dynavax Technologies average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Dynavax Technologies will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Dynavax Technologies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Dynavax Technologies Price Density |
Price |
Predictive Modules for Dynavax Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dynavax Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dynavax Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dynavax Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dynavax Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dynavax Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dynavax Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dynavax Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Dynavax Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dynavax Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dynavax Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.Dynavax Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 232.28 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.39 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 448.22 M. | |
Dynavax Technologies has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
Latest headline from simplywall.st: While shareholders of Dynavax Technologies are in the black over 5 years, those who bought a week ago arent so fortunate |
Dynavax Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dynavax Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dynavax Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dynavax Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.7 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 742.3 M |
Dynavax Technologies Technical Analysis
Dynavax Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dynavax Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dynavax Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dynavax Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dynavax Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
Dynavax Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Dynavax Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dynavax Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Dynavax Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Dynavax Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dynavax Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dynavax Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 232.28 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.39 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 448.22 M. | |
Dynavax Technologies has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
Latest headline from simplywall.st: While shareholders of Dynavax Technologies are in the black over 5 years, those who bought a week ago arent so fortunate |
Check out Dynavax Technologies Backtesting, Dynavax Technologies Valuation, Dynavax Technologies Correlation, Dynavax Technologies Hype Analysis, Dynavax Technologies Volatility, Dynavax Technologies History as well as Dynavax Technologies Performance. For more information on how to buy Dynavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Dynavax Technologies guide.Note that the Dynavax Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Dynavax Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for Dynavax Stock analysis
When running Dynavax Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Dynavax Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dynavax Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Dynavax Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dynavax Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dynavax Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dynavax Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dynavax Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dynavax Technologies. If investors know Dynavax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dynavax Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | Earnings Share (0.05) | Revenue Per Share 1.804 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.70) | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of Dynavax Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dynavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dynavax Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dynavax Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dynavax Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dynavax Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dynavax Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dynavax Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dynavax Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.