Dynex Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.5
| DX Stock | USD 11.48 0.04 0.35% |
Closest to current price Dynex long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Dynex |
Dynex Capital Target Price Odds to finish over 19.5
The tendency of Dynex Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 19.50 or more in 90 days |
| 11.48 | 90 days | 19.50 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dynex Capital to move over $ 19.50 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Dynex Capital probability density function shows the probability of Dynex Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dynex Capital price to stay between its current price of $ 11.48 and $ 19.50 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.43 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Dynex Capital will likely underperform. Additionally Dynex Capital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Dynex Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Dynex Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dynex Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dynex Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dynex Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dynex Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dynex Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dynex Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dynex Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Dynex Capital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dynex Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dynex Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Dynex Capital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Dynex Capital has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reports 5.38 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 4.03, which implies that the company may not be able to produce enough cash to satisfy its debt commitments. Dynex Capital has a current ratio of 0.28, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Debt can assist Dynex Capital until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Dynex Capital's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Dynex Capital sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Dynex to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Dynex Capital's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (6.13 M) with gross profit of 177 M. | |
| Dynex Capital has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 1st of April 2024 Dynex Capital paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Dynex Capital, Inc. Declares Monthly Common Stock Dividend of 0.13 |
Dynex Capital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dynex Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dynex Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dynex Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 119.6 M |
Dynex Capital Technical Analysis
Dynex Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dynex Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dynex Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dynex Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dynex Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Dynex Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dynex Capital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dynex Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Dynex Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Dynex Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dynex Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Dynex Capital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Dynex Capital has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reports 5.38 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 4.03, which implies that the company may not be able to produce enough cash to satisfy its debt commitments. Dynex Capital has a current ratio of 0.28, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Debt can assist Dynex Capital until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Dynex Capital's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Dynex Capital sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Dynex to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Dynex Capital's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (6.13 M) with gross profit of 177 M. | |
| Dynex Capital has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 1st of April 2024 Dynex Capital paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Dynex Capital, Inc. Declares Monthly Common Stock Dividend of 0.13 |
Check out Dynex Capital Backtesting, Dynex Capital Valuation, Dynex Capital Correlation, Dynex Capital Hype Analysis, Dynex Capital Volatility, Dynex Capital History as well as Dynex Capital Performance. For more information on how to buy Dynex Stock please use our How to Invest in Dynex Capital guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Dynex Stock analysis
When running Dynex Capital's price analysis, check to measure Dynex Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dynex Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Dynex Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dynex Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dynex Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dynex Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dynex Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dynex Capital. If investors know Dynex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dynex Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.54) | Dividend Share 1.56 | Earnings Share (0.25) | Revenue Per Share 0.488 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.36) |
The market value of Dynex Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dynex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dynex Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dynex Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dynex Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dynex Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dynex Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dynex Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dynex Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.