Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.96

EARN Stock  USD 7.13  0.12  1.71%   
Ellington Residential's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ellington Residential Mortgage. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ellington Residential based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ellington Residential Mortgage over a specific time period. For example, 2024-08-16 CALL at $7.5 is a CALL option contract on Ellington Residential's common stock with a strick price of 7.5 expiring on 2024-08-16. The contract was last traded on 2024-07-19 at 13:49:13 for $0.1 and, as of today, has 25 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.1. The implied volatility as of the 22nd of July is 35.38. View All Ellington options

Closest to current price Ellington long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Ellington Residential's future price is the expected price of Ellington Residential instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ellington Residential Mortgage performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ellington Residential Backtesting, Ellington Residential Valuation, Ellington Residential Correlation, Ellington Residential Hype Analysis, Ellington Residential Volatility, Ellington Residential History as well as Ellington Residential Performance.
  
At this time, Ellington Residential's Price To Sales Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 22nd of July 2024, Price Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 7.36, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 19.00. Please specify Ellington Residential's target price for which you would like Ellington Residential odds to be computed.

Ellington Residential Target Price Odds to finish over 6.96

The tendency of Ellington Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 6.96  in 90 days
 7.13 90 days 6.96 
about 30.85
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ellington Residential to stay above $ 6.96  in 90 days from now is about 30.85 (This Ellington Residential Mortgage probability density function shows the probability of Ellington Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ellington Residential price to stay between $ 6.96  and its current price of $7.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ellington Residential has a beta of 0.68 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Ellington Residential average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ellington Residential Mortgage will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ellington Residential Mortgage has an alpha of 0.0907, implying that it can generate a 0.0907 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Ellington Residential Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ellington Residential

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellington Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ellington Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.927.018.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.318.269.35
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.967.058.14
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.319.1310.13
Details

Ellington Residential Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ellington Residential is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ellington Residential's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ellington Residential Mortgage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ellington Residential within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.68
σ
Overall volatility
0.20
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Ellington Residential Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ellington Residential for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ellington Residential can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ellington Residential Mortgage currently holds 729.54 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.04, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ellington Residential has a current ratio of 0.17, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ellington Residential's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
Ellington Residential Mortgage currently holds about 83 M in cash with (10.02 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.35.
Ellington Residential has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 25th of June 2024 Ellington Residential paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Blackstone Holdings Iii L.p. of 7000 shares of Ellington Residential at 10.79 subject to Rule 16b-3

Ellington Residential Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ellington Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ellington Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellington Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments38.5 M

Ellington Residential Technical Analysis

Ellington Residential's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ellington Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ellington Residential Mortgage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ellington Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ellington Residential Predictive Forecast Models

Ellington Residential's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ellington Residential's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ellington Residential's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ellington Residential

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ellington Residential for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ellington Residential help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ellington Residential Mortgage currently holds 729.54 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.04, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ellington Residential has a current ratio of 0.17, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ellington Residential's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
Ellington Residential Mortgage currently holds about 83 M in cash with (10.02 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.35.
Ellington Residential has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 25th of June 2024 Ellington Residential paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Blackstone Holdings Iii L.p. of 7000 shares of Ellington Residential at 10.79 subject to Rule 16b-3

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ellington Stock

When determining whether Ellington Residential offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ellington Residential's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock:
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellington Residential. If investors know Ellington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ellington Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.185
Dividend Share
0.96
Earnings Share
0.34
Revenue Per Share
1.532
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.83)
The market value of Ellington Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ellington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ellington Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ellington Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ellington Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ellington Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ellington Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ellington Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ellington Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.