EDP Renovaveis (Portugal) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.18

Stocks . Portugal . 
Stock . EDP Renovaveis
EDPR Stock  EUR 21.09  0.16  0.76%   
EDP Renovaveis' future price is the expected price of EDP Renovaveis instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of EDP Renovaveis performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Check out EDP Renovaveis Backtesting, EDP Renovaveis Valuation, EDP Renovaveis Correlation, EDP Renovaveis Hype Analysis, EDP Renovaveis Volatility, EDP Renovaveis History as well as EDP Renovaveis Performance. Please specify EDP Renovaveis time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like EDP Renovaveis odds to be computed.

EDP Renovaveis Target Price Odds to finish below 20.18

The tendency of EDP Renovaveis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 20.18  or more in 90 days
 21.09 90 days 20.18 
about 41.96
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of EDP Renovaveis to drop to € 20.18  or more in 90 days from now is about 41.96 (This EDP Renovaveis probability density function shows the probability of EDP Renovaveis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of EDP Renovaveis price to stay between € 20.18  and its current price of €21.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.63 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon EDP Renovaveis has a beta of 0.57 suggesting as returns on the market go up, EDP Renovaveis average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding EDP Renovaveis will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.038, implying that it can generate a 0.038 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   EDP Renovaveis Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for EDP Renovaveis

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EDP Renovaveis. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of EDP Renovaveis' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of EDP Renovaveis in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
19.2621.0922.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
18.9620.7922.62
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
19.6421.4723.30
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
19.0920.2921.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as EDP Renovaveis. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against EDP Renovaveis' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, EDP Renovaveis' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in EDP Renovaveis.

EDP Renovaveis Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. EDP Renovaveis is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the EDP Renovaveis' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold EDP Renovaveis, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of EDP Renovaveis within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite		0.037956
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.57
σ
Overall volatility		0.57
Ir
Information ratio 0.018345

EDP Renovaveis Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of EDP Renovaveis for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for EDP Renovaveis can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
EDP Renovaveis has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

EDP Renovaveis Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of EDP Renovaveis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential EDP Renovaveis' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. EDP Renovaveis' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding960.6 M

EDP Renovaveis Technical Analysis

EDP Renovaveis' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. EDP Renovaveis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of EDP Renovaveis. In general, you should focus on analyzing EDP Renovaveis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cycle Indicators
Math Operators
Math Transform
Momentum Indicators
Overlap Studies
Pattern Recognition
Price Transform
Statistic Functions
Volatility Indicators
Volume Indicators

EDP Renovaveis Predictive Forecast Models

EDP Renovaveis time-series forecasting models is one of many EDP Renovaveis' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary EDP Renovaveis' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Things to note about EDP Renovaveis

Checking the ongoing alerts about EDP Renovaveis for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for EDP Renovaveis help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
EDP Renovaveis has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Check out EDP Renovaveis Backtesting, EDP Renovaveis Valuation, EDP Renovaveis Correlation, EDP Renovaveis Hype Analysis, EDP Renovaveis Volatility, EDP Renovaveis History as well as EDP Renovaveis Performance. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running EDP Renovaveis price analysis, check to measure EDP Renovaveis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy EDP Renovaveis is operating at the current time. Most of EDP Renovaveis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of EDP Renovaveis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move EDP Renovaveis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of EDP Renovaveis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Altman
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Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
Details
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Analysis
Details
Buy or Sell
Advice
Details
Technical
Analysis
Details
Please note, there is a significant difference between EDP Renovaveis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine EDP Renovaveis value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, EDP Renovaveis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
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