New Oriental Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.36

EDU -  USA Stock  

USD 11.11  0.03  0.27%

New Oriental's future price is the expected price of New Oriental instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of New Oriental Education performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. New Oriental Price to Book Value is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. New Oriental reported Price to Book Value of 3.17 in 2021. Price to Sales Ratio is likely to gain to 3.96 in 2022, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop 52.88 in 2022.
  
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New Oriental's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on New Oriental Education. Implied volatility approximates the future value of New Oriental based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in New Oriental Education over a specific time period. For example, 2022-05-20 CALL at $11.0 is a CALL option contract on New Oriental's common stock with a strick price of 11.0 expiring on 2022-05-20. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-13 at 15:59:10 for $0.6 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.51, and an ask price of $0.84. The implied volatility as of the 16th of May 2022 is 91.7308. View All New Oriental options

Closest to current price New Oriental long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to New Oriental Backtesting, New Oriental Valuation, New Oriental Correlation, New Oriental Hype Analysis, New Oriental Volatility, New Oriental History as well as New Oriental Performance. Please specify New Oriental time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like New Oriental odds to be computed.
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New Oriental Target Price Odds to finish over 4.36

The tendency of New Oriental Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 4.36  in 90 days
 11.11 90 days 4.36  close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of New Oriental to stay above $ 4.36  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This New Oriental Education probability density function shows the probability of New Oriental Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of New Oriental Education price to stay between $ 4.36  and its current price of $11.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.27 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.01 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, New Oriental will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. New Oriental Education is significantly underperforming DOW.
 New Oriental Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for New Oriental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Oriental Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Oriental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of New Oriental in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.0115.8822.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.346.7613.63
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
2.404.369.20
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.28-0.27-0.26
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New Oriental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New Oriental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New Oriental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in New Oriental Education.

New Oriental Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. New Oriental is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the New Oriental's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold New Oriental Education, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of New Oriental within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.05
β
Beta against DOW2.01
σ
Overall volatility
1.85
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

New Oriental Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of New Oriental for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for New Oriental Education can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
New Oriental generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
New Oriental has high historical volatility and very poor performance
New Oriental has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: What Kind Of Shareholders Hold The Majority In New Oriental Education Technology Group Inc.s Shares - Yahoo Finance

New Oriental Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of New Oriental Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential New Oriental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Oriental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out8.03%
Float Shares1.46B
Shares Short Prior Month149.13M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.22M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.91M
Date Short Interest31st of January 2022

New Oriental Technical Analysis

New Oriental's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. New Oriental Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of New Oriental Education. In general, you should focus on analyzing New Oriental Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

New Oriental Predictive Forecast Models

New Oriental time-series forecasting models is one of many New Oriental's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary New Oriental's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about New Oriental Education

Checking the ongoing alerts about New Oriental for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for New Oriental Education help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

New Oriental Alerts

New Oriental Alerts and Suggestions

New Oriental generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
New Oriental has high historical volatility and very poor performance
New Oriental has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: What Kind Of Shareholders Hold The Majority In New Oriental Education Technology Group Inc.s Shares - Yahoo Finance
Continue to New Oriental Backtesting, New Oriental Valuation, New Oriental Correlation, New Oriental Hype Analysis, New Oriental Volatility, New Oriental History as well as New Oriental Performance. Note that the New Oriental Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other New Oriental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for New Oriental Stock analysis

When running New Oriental Education price analysis, check to measure New Oriental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Oriental is operating at the current time. Most of New Oriental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Oriental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Oriental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Oriental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is New Oriental's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of New Oriental. If investors know New Oriental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about New Oriental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of New Oriental Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of New Oriental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of New Oriental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is New Oriental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because New Oriental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect New Oriental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between New Oriental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine New Oriental value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, New Oriental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.