Federated Emerging Market Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 8.76
| EMDIX Fund | USD 7.45 0.01 0.13% |
Federated |
Federated Emerging Target Price Odds to finish below 8.76
The tendency of Federated Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 8.76 after 90 days |
| 7.45 | 90 days | 8.76 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federated Emerging to stay under $ 8.76 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Federated Emerging Market probability density function shows the probability of Federated Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Federated Emerging Market price to stay between its current price of $ 7.45 and $ 8.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.93 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federated Emerging has a beta of 0.31 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Federated Emerging average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Federated Emerging Market will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Federated Emerging Market has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Federated Emerging Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Federated Emerging
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Emerging Market. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federated Emerging Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federated Emerging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federated Emerging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federated Emerging Market, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federated Emerging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Federated Emerging Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federated Emerging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federated Emerging Market can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Federated Emerging Market retains about 95.58% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Federated Emerging Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Federated Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Federated Emerging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federated Emerging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Federated Emerging Technical Analysis
Federated Emerging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federated Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federated Emerging Market. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federated Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Federated Emerging Predictive Forecast Models
Federated Emerging's time-series forecasting models is one of many Federated Emerging's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Federated Emerging's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Federated Emerging Market
Checking the ongoing alerts about Federated Emerging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federated Emerging Market help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Federated Emerging Market retains about 95.58% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Check out Federated Emerging Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Federated Emerging Correlation, Federated Emerging Hype Analysis, Federated Emerging Volatility, Federated Emerging History as well as Federated Emerging Performance. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.