Emerging Markets Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 12.68

EMRYX Fund  USD 14.25  0.03  0.21%   
Emerging Markets' future price is the expected price of Emerging Markets instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Emerging Markets Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Emerging Markets Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Emerging Markets Correlation, Emerging Markets Hype Analysis, Emerging Markets Volatility, Emerging Markets History as well as Emerging Markets Performance.
  
Please specify Emerging Markets' target price for which you would like Emerging Markets odds to be computed.

Emerging Markets Target Price Odds to finish below 12.68

The tendency of Emerging Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 12.68  or more in 90 days
 14.25 90 days 12.68 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Emerging Markets to drop to $ 12.68  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Emerging Markets Fund probability density function shows the probability of Emerging Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Emerging Markets Fund price to stay between $ 12.68  and its current price of $14.25 at the end of the 90-day period is more than 94.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Emerging Markets has a beta of 0.83 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Emerging Markets average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Emerging Markets Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Emerging Markets Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Emerging Markets Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Emerging Markets

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emerging Markets Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Emerging Markets' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.4614.2515.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.3414.1314.92
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.5714.3615.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
14.1114.2014.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Emerging Markets. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Emerging Markets' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Emerging Markets' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Emerging Markets Fund.

Emerging Markets Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Emerging Markets is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Emerging Markets' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Emerging Markets Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Emerging Markets within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.83
σ
Overall volatility
0.35
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Emerging Markets Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Emerging Markets for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Emerging Markets Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund generated three year return of -9.0%
Emerging Markets Fund retains 98.27% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Emerging Markets Technical Analysis

Emerging Markets' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Emerging Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Emerging Markets Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Emerging Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Emerging Markets Predictive Forecast Models

Emerging Markets' time-series forecasting models is one of many Emerging Markets' mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Emerging Markets' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Emerging Markets Fund

Checking the ongoing alerts about Emerging Markets for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Emerging Markets Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund generated three year return of -9.0%
Emerging Markets Fund retains 98.27% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Complementary Tools for Emerging Mutual Fund analysis

When running Emerging Markets' price analysis, check to measure Emerging Markets' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Emerging Markets is operating at the current time. Most of Emerging Markets' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Emerging Markets' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Emerging Markets' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Emerging Markets to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Emerging Markets' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Emerging Markets is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Emerging Markets' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.