Expeditors International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 121.24

EXPD Stock  USD 121.24  1.30  1.08%   
Expeditors International's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Expeditors International. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Expeditors International based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Expeditors International over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $120.0 is a CALL option contract on Expeditors International's common stock with a strick price of 120.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:52:14 for $3.05 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.9, and an ask price of $3.2. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 19.05. View All Expeditors options

Closest to current price Expeditors long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Expeditors International's future price is the expected price of Expeditors International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Expeditors International performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Expeditors International Backtesting, Expeditors International Valuation, Expeditors International Correlation, Expeditors International Hype Analysis, Expeditors International Volatility, Expeditors International History as well as Expeditors International Performance.
For information on how to trade Expeditors Stock refer to our How to Trade Expeditors Stock guide.
  
At present, Expeditors International's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Cash Flow Ratio is expected to grow to 25.29, whereas Price Book Value Ratio is forecasted to decline to 4.08. Please specify Expeditors International's target price for which you would like Expeditors International odds to be computed.

Expeditors International Target Price Odds to finish over 121.24

The tendency of Expeditors Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 121.24 90 days 121.24 
about 76.58
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Expeditors International to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 76.58 (This Expeditors International probability density function shows the probability of Expeditors Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Expeditors International has a beta of 0.99 suggesting Expeditors International market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Expeditors International is expected to follow. Additionally Expeditors International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Expeditors International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Expeditors International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Expeditors International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Expeditors International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
119.84121.29122.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
113.25114.70133.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
118.03119.48120.93
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
97.72107.38119.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Expeditors International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Expeditors International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Expeditors International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Expeditors International.

Expeditors International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Expeditors International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Expeditors International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Expeditors International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Expeditors International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.99
σ
Overall volatility
3.82
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

Expeditors International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Expeditors International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Expeditors International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Expeditors International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: United States 3PL Market Analysis and Outlook 2024-2029 by Service and End User

Expeditors International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Expeditors Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Expeditors International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Expeditors International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding150.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.5 B

Expeditors International Technical Analysis

Expeditors International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Expeditors Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Expeditors International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Expeditors Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Expeditors International Predictive Forecast Models

Expeditors International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Expeditors International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Expeditors International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Expeditors International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Expeditors International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Expeditors International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Expeditors International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: United States 3PL Market Analysis and Outlook 2024-2029 by Service and End User
When determining whether Expeditors International is a strong investment it is important to analyze Expeditors International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Expeditors International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Expeditors Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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When running Expeditors International's price analysis, check to measure Expeditors International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Expeditors International is operating at the current time. Most of Expeditors International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Expeditors International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Expeditors International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Expeditors International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Expeditors International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Expeditors International. If investors know Expeditors will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Expeditors International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.22)
Dividend Share
1.38
Earnings Share
5.01
Revenue Per Share
62.358
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.34)
The market value of Expeditors International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Expeditors that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Expeditors International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Expeditors International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Expeditors International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Expeditors International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Expeditors International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Expeditors International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Expeditors International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.