Franklin Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 161.75

FCGAX -  USA Fund  

USD 161.75  0.05  0.0309%

Franklin Growth's future price is the expected price of Franklin Growth instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Franklin Growth performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

Franklin Price Probability 

 
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Please check Franklin Growth Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Franklin Growth Correlation, Franklin Growth Hype Analysis, Franklin Growth Volatility, Franklin Growth History as well as Franklin Growth Performance. Please specify Franklin Growth time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Franklin Growth odds to be computed.
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Franklin Growth Target Price Odds to finish over 161.75

The tendency of Franklin Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 161.75 90 days 161.75  about 10.24
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Franklin Growth to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 10.24 (This Franklin Growth probability density function shows the probability of Franklin Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Franklin Growth has a beta of 0.22. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Franklin Growth average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Franklin Growth will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.048, implying that it can generate a 0.048 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Franklin Growth Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Franklin Growth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franklin Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Franklin Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Franklin Growth in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
160.95161.75162.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
156.91157.71177.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
165.43166.23167.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
151.00157.92164.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Franklin Growth. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Franklin Growth's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Franklin Growth's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Franklin Growth.

Franklin Growth Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Franklin Growth is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Franklin Growth's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Franklin Growth, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Franklin Growth within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.048014
β
Beta against DOW0.22
σ
Overall volatility
2.95
Ir
Information ratio 0.038842

Franklin Growth Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Franklin Growth for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Franklin Growth can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Franklin Growth is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains 98.95% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Franklin Growth Technical Analysis

Franklin Growth's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Franklin Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Franklin Growth. In general, you should focus on analyzing Franklin Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Franklin Growth Predictive Forecast Models

Franklin Growth time-series forecasting models is one of many Franklin Growth's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Franklin Growth's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Franklin Growth

Checking the ongoing alerts about Franklin Growth for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Franklin Growth help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Franklin Growth Alerts

Franklin Growth Alerts and Suggestions

Franklin Growth is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains 98.95% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Please check Franklin Growth Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Franklin Growth Correlation, Franklin Growth Hype Analysis, Franklin Growth Volatility, Franklin Growth History as well as Franklin Growth Performance. Note that the Franklin Growth information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Franklin Growth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

Complementary Tools for Franklin Mutual Fund analysis

When running Franklin Growth price analysis, check to measure Franklin Growth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Franklin Growth is operating at the current time. Most of Franklin Growth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Franklin Growth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Franklin Growth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Franklin Growth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Franklin Growth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Franklin Growth value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Franklin Growth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.