American Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 76.44

FEEFX -  USA Fund  

USD 76.44  0.12  0.16%

American Funds' future price is the expected price of American Funds instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Funds Fundamental performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Please check American Funds Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Funds Correlation, American Funds Hype Analysis, American Funds Volatility, American Funds History as well as American Funds Performance. Please specify American Funds time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Funds odds to be computed.
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American Funds Target Price Odds to finish over 76.44

The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 76.44 90 days 76.44  about 78.47
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Funds to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 78.47 (This American Funds Fundamental probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Funds Fundamental has a beta of -0.0128. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding American Funds are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, American Funds Fundamental is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.011, implying that it can generate a 0.011 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 American Funds Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for American Funds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Funds Funda. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Funds in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
75.8376.4477.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
76.0076.6177.22
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
74.8875.4976.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
75.6478.2680.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Funds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Funds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Funds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Funds Funda.

American Funds Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Funds is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Funds' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Funds Fundamental, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Funds within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.011037
β
Beta against DOW-0.01
σ
Overall volatility
1.18
Ir
Information ratio 0.00273

American Funds Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Funds for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Funds Funda can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Funds Funda is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.dividendinvestor.com: Dividend Announcement per share - Dividend Investor
The fund retains 95.45% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

American Funds Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Funds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Funds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

American Funds Technical Analysis

American Funds' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Funds Fundamental. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Funds Predictive Forecast Models

American Funds time-series forecasting models is one of many American Funds' mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Funds' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Funds Funda

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Funds for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Funds Funda help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

American Funds Alerts

American Funds Alerts and Suggestions

American Funds Funda is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.dividendinvestor.com: Dividend Announcement per share - Dividend Investor
The fund retains 95.45% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Please check American Funds Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Funds Correlation, American Funds Hype Analysis, American Funds Volatility, American Funds History as well as American Funds Performance. Note that the American Funds Funda information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Funds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Funds Funda price analysis, check to measure American Funds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Funds is operating at the current time. Most of American Funds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Funds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Funds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Funds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Funds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Funds value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Funds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.