First Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 9.0

FEHAX -  USA Fund  

USD 8.89  0.02  0.23%

First Eagle's future price is the expected price of First Eagle instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of First Eagle High performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

First Price Probability 

 
Refresh
Please check First Eagle Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, First Eagle Correlation, First Eagle Hype Analysis, First Eagle Volatility, First Eagle History as well as First Eagle Performance. Please specify First Eagle time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like First Eagle odds to be computed.
Apply Odds

First Eagle Target Price Odds to finish over 9.0

The tendency of First Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 9.00  or more in 90 days
 8.89 90 days 9.00  about 59.37
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Eagle to move over $ 9.00  or more in 90 days from now is about 59.37 (This First Eagle High probability density function shows the probability of First Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Eagle High price to stay between its current price of $ 8.89  and $ 9.00  at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.4 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Eagle has a beta of 0.0067. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Eagle average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Eagle High will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. First Eagle High is significantly underperforming DOW.
 First Eagle Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for First Eagle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Eagle High. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of First Eagle in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.748.879.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.778.909.03
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
8.718.848.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.878.969.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Eagle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Eagle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Eagle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in First Eagle High.

First Eagle Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Eagle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Eagle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Eagle High, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Eagle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.04
β
Beta against DOW0.0067
σ
Overall volatility
0.04222
Ir
Information ratio 0.023715

First Eagle Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Eagle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Eagle High can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Eagle High generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
First Eagle High is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains about 6.82% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

First Eagle Technical Analysis

First Eagle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Eagle High. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

First Eagle Predictive Forecast Models

First Eagle time-series forecasting models is one of many First Eagle's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary First Eagle's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about First Eagle High

Checking the ongoing alerts about First Eagle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Eagle High help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

First Eagle Alerts

First Eagle Alerts and Suggestions

First Eagle High generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
First Eagle High is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains about 6.82% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
Please check First Eagle Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, First Eagle Correlation, First Eagle Hype Analysis, First Eagle Volatility, First Eagle History as well as First Eagle Performance. Note that the First Eagle High information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Eagle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for First Mutual Fund analysis

When running First Eagle High price analysis, check to measure First Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of First Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Go
Fund Screener
Find activelly-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine First Eagle value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.