Federated Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 37.60

FGFCX -  USA Fund  

USD 37.60  0.38  1.00%

Federated International's future price is the expected price of Federated International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Federated International Leaders performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

Federated Price Probability 

 
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Please check Federated International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Federated International Correlation, Federated International Hype Analysis, Federated International Volatility, Federated International History as well as Federated International Performance. Please specify Federated International time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Federated International odds to be computed.
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Federated International Target Price Odds to finish over 37.60

The tendency of Federated Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 37.60 90 days 37.60  close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federated International to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Federated International Leaders probability density function shows the probability of Federated Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federated International Leaders has a beta of -0.082. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Federated International are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Federated International Leaders is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Federated International is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Federated International Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Federated International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Federated International in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.7737.6538.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
36.4537.3338.21
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
36.3437.2138.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
38.0040.2442.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Federated International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Federated International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Federated International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Federated International.

Federated International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federated International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federated International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federated International Leaders, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federated International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.11
β
Beta against DOW-0.08
σ
Overall volatility
0.78
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Federated International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federated International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federated International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Federated International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Federated International generated five year return of -1.0%
This fund retains 98.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Federated International Technical Analysis

Federated International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federated Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federated International Leaders. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federated Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Federated International Predictive Forecast Models

Federated International time-series forecasting models is one of many Federated International's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Federated International's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Federated International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Federated International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federated International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Federated International Alerts

Federated International Alerts and Suggestions

Federated International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Federated International generated five year return of -1.0%
This fund retains 98.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Please check Federated International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Federated International Correlation, Federated International Hype Analysis, Federated International Volatility, Federated International History as well as Federated International Performance. Note that the Federated International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Federated International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for Federated Mutual Fund analysis

When running Federated International price analysis, check to measure Federated International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federated International is operating at the current time. Most of Federated International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federated International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federated International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federated International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Federated International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Federated International value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federated International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.