Federated Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 9.89

FGFIX -  USA Fund  

USD 9.89  0.03  0.30%

Federated Mortgage's future price is the expected price of Federated Mortgage instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Federated Mortgage performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

Federated Price Probability 

 
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Please check Federated Mortgage Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Federated Mortgage Correlation, Federated Mortgage Hype Analysis, Federated Mortgage Volatility, Federated Mortgage History as well as Federated Mortgage Performance. Please specify Federated Mortgage time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Federated Mortgage odds to be computed.
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Federated Mortgage Target Price Odds to finish over 9.89

The tendency of Federated Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 9.89 90 days 9.89  about 42.81
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federated Mortgage to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 42.81 (This Federated Mortgage probability density function shows the probability of Federated Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federated Mortgage has a beta of 0.0245. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Federated Mortgage average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Federated Mortgage will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Federated Mortgage is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Federated Mortgage Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Federated Mortgage

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Federated Mortgage in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.669.8910.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.669.8910.12
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
9.729.9510.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.779.879.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Federated Mortgage. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Federated Mortgage's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Federated Mortgage's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Federated Mortgage.

Federated Mortgage Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federated Mortgage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federated Mortgage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federated Mortgage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federated Mortgage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.02
β
Beta against DOW0.0245
σ
Overall volatility
0.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Federated Mortgage Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federated Mortgage for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federated Mortgage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Federated Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Federated Mortgage is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
On 29th of October 2021 Federated Mortgage paid $ 0.006 per share dividend to its current shareholders
The fund retains about 6.31% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

Federated Mortgage Technical Analysis

Federated Mortgage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federated Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federated Mortgage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federated Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Federated Mortgage Predictive Forecast Models

Federated Mortgage time-series forecasting models is one of many Federated Mortgage's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Federated Mortgage's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Federated Mortgage

Checking the ongoing alerts about Federated Mortgage for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federated Mortgage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Federated Mortgage Alerts

Federated Mortgage Alerts and Suggestions

Federated Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Federated Mortgage is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
On 29th of October 2021 Federated Mortgage paid $ 0.006 per share dividend to its current shareholders
The fund retains about 6.31% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
Please check Federated Mortgage Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Federated Mortgage Correlation, Federated Mortgage Hype Analysis, Federated Mortgage Volatility, Federated Mortgage History as well as Federated Mortgage Performance. Note that the Federated Mortgage information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Federated Mortgage's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for Federated Mutual Fund analysis

When running Federated Mortgage price analysis, check to measure Federated Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federated Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of Federated Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federated Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federated Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federated Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Federated Mortgage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Federated Mortgage value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federated Mortgage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.