Federated International Leaders Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 40.61
| FGFLX Fund | USD 36.25 0.12 0.33% |
Federated |
Federated International Target Price Odds to finish below 40.61
The tendency of Federated Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 40.61 after 90 days |
| 36.25 | 90 days | 40.61 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federated International to stay under $ 40.61 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Federated International Leaders probability density function shows the probability of Federated Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Federated International price to stay between its current price of $ 36.25 and $ 40.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federated International has a beta of 0.89. This usually indicates Federated International Leaders market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Federated International is expected to follow. Additionally Federated International Leaders has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Federated International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Federated International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federated International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federated International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federated International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federated International Leaders, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federated International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Federated International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federated International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federated International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund retains about 6.85% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Federated International Technical Analysis
Federated International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federated Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federated International Leaders. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federated Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Federated International Predictive Forecast Models
Federated International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Federated International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Federated International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Federated International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Federated International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federated International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund retains about 6.85% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Check out Federated International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Federated International Correlation, Federated International Hype Analysis, Federated International Volatility, Federated International History as well as Federated International Performance. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.