Fidelity Puritan Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 21.78
| FPUKX Fund | USD 24.33 0.17 0.70% |
Fidelity |
Fidelity Puritan Target Price Odds to finish over 21.78
The tendency of Fidelity Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 21.78 in 90 days |
| 24.33 | 90 days | 21.78 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fidelity Puritan to stay above $ 21.78 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Fidelity Puritan Fund probability density function shows the probability of Fidelity Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fidelity Puritan price to stay between $ 21.78 and its current price of $24.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.94 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Fidelity Puritan has a beta of 0.81. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Fidelity Puritan average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Fidelity Puritan Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Fidelity Puritan Fund has an alpha of 0.0022, implying that it can generate a 0.002231 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Fidelity Puritan Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Fidelity Puritan
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity Puritan. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Puritan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Puritan Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fidelity Puritan is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fidelity Puritan's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fidelity Puritan Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fidelity Puritan within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.81 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Fidelity Puritan Technical Analysis
Fidelity Puritan's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fidelity Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fidelity Puritan Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fidelity Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fidelity Puritan Predictive Forecast Models
Fidelity Puritan's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fidelity Puritan's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fidelity Puritan's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fidelity Puritan in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fidelity Puritan's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fidelity Puritan options trading.
Check out Fidelity Puritan Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Fidelity Puritan Correlation, Fidelity Puritan Hype Analysis, Fidelity Puritan Volatility, Fidelity Puritan History as well as Fidelity Puritan Performance. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..