First Trust Senior Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Over 46.15

FTSL Etf  USD 46.15  0.05  0.11%   
First Trust's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on First Trust Senior. Implied volatility approximates the future value of First Trust based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in First Trust Senior over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-15 CALL at $44.0 is a CALL option contract on First Trust's common stock with a strick price of 44.0 expiring on 2024-03-15. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 16 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.65, and an ask price of $3.7. The implied volatility as of the 28th of February is 48.82. View All First options

Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

First Trust's future price is the expected price of First Trust instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of First Trust Senior performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out First Trust Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, First Trust Correlation, First Trust Hype Analysis, First Trust Volatility, First Trust History as well as First Trust Performance.
  
Please specify First Trust's target price for which you would like First Trust odds to be computed.

First Trust Target Price Odds to finish over 46.15

The tendency of First Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 46.15 90 days 46.15 
about 18.55
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trust to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 18.55 (This First Trust Senior probability density function shows the probability of First Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Trust has a beta of 0.0568. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Trust average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Trust Senior will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 4.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 4.14E-4 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   First Trust Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Trust

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust Senior. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of First Trust in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
45.7446.1546.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.6346.0446.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Trust. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Trust's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Trust's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Trust Senior.

First Trust Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trust Senior, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.0004
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.06
σ
Overall volatility
0.19
Ir
Information ratio -0.36

First Trust Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trust for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trust Senior can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: 48,030 Shares in First Trust Senior Loan ETF Acquired by Private Advisory Group LLC
The fund retains about 10.68% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

First Trust Technical Analysis

First Trust's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Trust Senior. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

First Trust Predictive Forecast Models

First Trust's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Trust's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Trust's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about First Trust Senior

Checking the ongoing alerts about First Trust for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Trust Senior help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: 48,030 Shares in First Trust Senior Loan ETF Acquired by Private Advisory Group LLC
The fund retains about 10.68% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
When determining whether First Trust Senior is a strong investment it is important to analyze First Trust's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact First Trust's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding First Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out First Trust Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, First Trust Correlation, First Trust Hype Analysis, First Trust Volatility, First Trust History as well as First Trust Performance.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for First Etf analysis

When running First Trust's price analysis, check to measure First Trust's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Trust is operating at the current time. Most of First Trust's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Trust's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Trust's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Trust to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of First Trust Senior is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.