Gabelli Equity Trust Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 4.41
| GAB Fund | USD 5.29 0.08 1.54% |
Gabelli |
Gabelli Equity Target Price Odds to finish below 4.41
The tendency of Gabelli Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.41 or more in 90 days |
| 5.29 | 90 days | 4.41 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gabelli Equity to drop to $ 4.41 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Gabelli Equity Trust probability density function shows the probability of Gabelli Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gabelli Equity Trust price to stay between $ 4.41 and its current price of $5.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.97 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Gabelli Equity has a beta of 0.89. This usually indicates Gabelli Equity Trust market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Gabelli Equity is expected to follow. Additionally Gabelli Equity Trust has an alpha of 0.0306, implying that it can generate a 0.0306 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Gabelli Equity Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gabelli Equity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gabelli Equity Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gabelli Equity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gabelli Equity Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gabelli Equity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gabelli Equity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gabelli Equity Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gabelli Equity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Gabelli Equity Technical Analysis
Gabelli Equity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gabelli Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gabelli Equity Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gabelli Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gabelli Equity Predictive Forecast Models
Gabelli Equity's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gabelli Equity's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gabelli Equity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Gabelli Equity in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Gabelli Equity's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Gabelli Equity options trading.
Check out Gabelli Equity Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Gabelli Equity Correlation, Gabelli Equity Hype Analysis, Gabelli Equity Volatility, Gabelli Equity History as well as Gabelli Equity Performance. Note that the Gabelli Equity Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Gabelli Equity's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.