Gabelli Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 6.81

Funds . USA . 
Fund . Gabelli Equity Trust
GAB Fund  USD 5.57  0.13  2.39%   
Gabelli Equity's future price is the expected price of Gabelli Equity instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Gabelli Equity Trust performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Check out Gabelli Equity Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Gabelli Equity Correlation, Gabelli Equity Hype Analysis, Gabelli Equity Volatility, Gabelli Equity History as well as Gabelli Equity Performance. Please specify Gabelli Equity time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Gabelli Equity odds to be computed.

Gabelli Equity Target Price Odds to finish over 6.81

The tendency of Gabelli Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 6.81  or more in 90 days
 5.57 90 days 6.81 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gabelli Equity to move over $ 6.81  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Gabelli Equity Trust probability density function shows the probability of Gabelli Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gabelli Equity Trust price to stay between its current price of $ 5.57  and $ 6.81  at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.32 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Gabelli Equity has a beta of 0.83. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Gabelli Equity average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gabelli Equity Trust will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Gabelli Equity Trust is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Gabelli Equity Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Gabelli Equity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gabelli Equity Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gabelli Equity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Gabelli Equity in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.545.576.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.535.566.59
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.515.546.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.275.435.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gabelli Equity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gabelli Equity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gabelli Equity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gabelli Equity Trust.

Gabelli Equity Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gabelli Equity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gabelli Equity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gabelli Equity Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gabelli Equity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite		-0.02
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.83
σ
Overall volatility		0.12
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Gabelli Equity Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gabelli Equity for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gabelli Equity Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Gabelli Equity Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Gabelli Equity Trust is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from news.google.com: Lydia Brimelow - Southern Poverty Law Center

Gabelli Equity Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gabelli Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gabelli Equity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gabelli Equity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.29%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.60
Short Percent Of Float0.29%
Shares Short Prior Month1.17M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day407.6k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month498.72k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield10.15%

Gabelli Equity Technical Analysis

Gabelli Equity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gabelli Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gabelli Equity Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gabelli Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cycle Indicators
Math Operators
Math Transform
Momentum Indicators
Overlap Studies
Pattern Recognition
Price Transform
Statistic Functions
Volatility Indicators
Volume Indicators

Gabelli Equity Predictive Forecast Models

Gabelli Equity's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gabelli Equity's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gabelli Equity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Things to note about Gabelli Equity Trust

Checking the ongoing alerts about Gabelli Equity for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gabelli Equity Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Gabelli Equity Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Gabelli Equity Trust is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from news.google.com: Lydia Brimelow - Southern Poverty Law Center
Check out Gabelli Equity Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Gabelli Equity Correlation, Gabelli Equity Hype Analysis, Gabelli Equity Volatility, Gabelli Equity History as well as Gabelli Equity Performance. Note that the Gabelli Equity Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Gabelli Equity's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for Gabelli Fund analysis

When running Gabelli Equity's price analysis, check to measure Gabelli Equity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gabelli Equity is operating at the current time. Most of Gabelli Equity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gabelli Equity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gabelli Equity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gabelli Equity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Financial
Analysis
Details
Buy or Sell
Advice
Details
Technical
Analysis
Details
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gabelli Equity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gabelli Equity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gabelli Equity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
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