Griffon Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 67.15

GFF Stock  USD 67.15  3.00  4.68%   
Griffon's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Griffon. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Griffon based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Griffon over a specific time period. For example, 2024-06-21 CALL at $60.0 is a CALL option contract on Griffon's common stock with a strick price of 60.0 expiring on 2024-06-21. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 5 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.1, and an ask price of $6.5. The implied volatility as of the 16th of June 2024 is 64.94. View All Griffon options

Closest to current price Griffon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Griffon's future price is the expected price of Griffon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Griffon performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Griffon Backtesting, Griffon Valuation, Griffon Correlation, Griffon Hype Analysis, Griffon Volatility, Griffon History as well as Griffon Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Griffon Stock please use our How to Invest in Griffon guide.
  
At this time, Griffon's Price Book Value Ratio is most likely to slightly grow in the upcoming years. The Griffon's current Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 8.21, while Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is forecasted to increase to (0.18). Please specify Griffon's target price for which you would like Griffon odds to be computed.

Griffon Target Price Odds to finish over 67.15

The tendency of Griffon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 67.15 90 days 67.15 
about 75.99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Griffon to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 75.99 (This Griffon probability density function shows the probability of Griffon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Griffon has a beta of 0.27. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Griffon average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Griffon will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Griffon has an alpha of 0.0053, implying that it can generate a 0.005301 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Griffon Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Griffon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Griffon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Griffon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
64.5767.1169.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
54.5057.0473.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
63.2865.8268.36
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
51.6956.8063.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Griffon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Griffon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Griffon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Griffon.

Griffon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Griffon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Griffon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Griffon, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Griffon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.01
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.27
σ
Overall volatility
2.38
Ir
Information ratio -0.0072

Griffon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Griffon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Griffon can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Griffon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from zacks.com: Are Conglomerates Stocks Lagging Carlisle Companies This Year

Griffon Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Griffon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Griffon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Griffon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding54.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments102.9 M

Griffon Technical Analysis

Griffon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Griffon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Griffon. In general, you should focus on analyzing Griffon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Griffon Predictive Forecast Models

Griffon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Griffon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Griffon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Griffon

Checking the ongoing alerts about Griffon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Griffon help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Griffon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from zacks.com: Are Conglomerates Stocks Lagging Carlisle Companies This Year

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Griffon Stock

When determining whether Griffon is a strong investment it is important to analyze Griffon's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Griffon's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Griffon Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Griffon Backtesting, Griffon Valuation, Griffon Correlation, Griffon Hype Analysis, Griffon Volatility, Griffon History as well as Griffon Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Griffon Stock please use our How to Invest in Griffon guide.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Building Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Griffon. If investors know Griffon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Griffon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.07)
Dividend Share
0.55
Earnings Share
3.78
Revenue Per Share
52.934
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.05)
The market value of Griffon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Griffon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Griffon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Griffon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Griffon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Griffon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Griffon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Griffon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Griffon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.