Guardant Health Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 112.22

GH Stock  USD 17.96  0.27  1.53%   
Guardant Health's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Guardant Health. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Guardant Health based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Guardant Health over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $17.5 is a CALL option contract on Guardant Health's common stock with a strick price of 17.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:41:51 for $3.5 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.5, and an ask price of $3.8. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 74.48. View All Guardant options

Closest to current price Guardant long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Guardant Health's future price is the expected price of Guardant Health instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Guardant Health performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Guardant Health Backtesting, Guardant Health Valuation, Guardant Health Correlation, Guardant Health Hype Analysis, Guardant Health Volatility, Guardant Health History as well as Guardant Health Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Guardant Stock please use our How to Invest in Guardant Health guide.
  
The Guardant Health's current Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is estimated to increase to 0.20, while Price Earnings Ratio is projected to decrease to (6.63). Please specify Guardant Health's target price for which you would like Guardant Health odds to be computed.

Guardant Health Target Price Odds to finish over 112.22

The tendency of Guardant Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 112.22  or more in 90 days
 17.96 90 days 112.22 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guardant Health to move over $ 112.22  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Guardant Health probability density function shows the probability of Guardant Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guardant Health price to stay between its current price of $ 17.96  and $ 112.22  at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.88 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Guardant Health has a beta of 0.6. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Guardant Health average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Guardant Health will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Guardant Health has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Guardant Health Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Guardant Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guardant Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guardant Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.6917.9621.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.4316.7019.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
15.2118.4921.76
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
48.2353.0058.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guardant Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guardant Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guardant Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Guardant Health.

Guardant Health Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guardant Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guardant Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guardant Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guardant Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.66
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.60
σ
Overall volatility
3.20
Ir
Information ratio -0.22

Guardant Health Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guardant Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guardant Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guardant Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Guardant Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Guardant Health has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company generated the yearly revenue of 563.95 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (479.45 M) with gross profit of 293.21 M.
Guardant Health reports about 853.69 M in cash with (324.98 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.35.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Guardant Health Revises Co-CEOs Compensation and Incentives - TipRanks.com - TipRanks

Guardant Health Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guardant Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guardant Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guardant Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding112 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.2 B

Guardant Health Technical Analysis

Guardant Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guardant Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guardant Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guardant Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Guardant Health Predictive Forecast Models

Guardant Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Guardant Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guardant Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Guardant Health

Checking the ongoing alerts about Guardant Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guardant Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guardant Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Guardant Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Guardant Health has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company generated the yearly revenue of 563.95 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (479.45 M) with gross profit of 293.21 M.
Guardant Health reports about 853.69 M in cash with (324.98 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.35.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Guardant Health Revises Co-CEOs Compensation and Incentives - TipRanks.com - TipRanks
When determining whether Guardant Health offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Guardant Health's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Guardant Health Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Guardant Health Stock:
Check out Guardant Health Backtesting, Guardant Health Valuation, Guardant Health Correlation, Guardant Health Hype Analysis, Guardant Health Volatility, Guardant Health History as well as Guardant Health Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Guardant Stock please use our How to Invest in Guardant Health guide.
Note that the Guardant Health information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guardant Health's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Complementary Tools for Guardant Stock analysis

When running Guardant Health's price analysis, check to measure Guardant Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guardant Health is operating at the current time. Most of Guardant Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guardant Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guardant Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guardant Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Guardant Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guardant Health. If investors know Guardant will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guardant Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(4.28)
Revenue Per Share
5.036
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.222
Return On Assets
(0.18)
Return On Equity
(4.38)
The market value of Guardant Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guardant that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guardant Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guardant Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guardant Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guardant Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guardant Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guardant Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guardant Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.