Guggenheim Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 13.72

GIJIX -  USA Fund  

USD 13.43  0.03  0.22%

Guggenheim Municipal's future price is the expected price of Guggenheim Municipal instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Guggenheim Municipal Income performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

Guggenheim Price Probability 

 
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Please check Guggenheim Municipal Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Guggenheim Municipal Correlation, Guggenheim Municipal Hype Analysis, Guggenheim Municipal Volatility, Guggenheim Municipal History as well as Guggenheim Municipal Performance. Please specify Guggenheim Municipal time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Guggenheim Municipal odds to be computed.
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Guggenheim Municipal Target Price Odds to finish over 13.72

The tendency of Guggenheim Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 13.72  or more in 90 days
 13.43 90 days 13.72  about 7.77
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guggenheim Municipal to move over $ 13.72  or more in 90 days from now is about 7.77 (This Guggenheim Municipal Income probability density function shows the probability of Guggenheim Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guggenheim Municipal price to stay between its current price of $ 13.43  and $ 13.72  at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.21 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Guggenheim Municipal has a beta of 0.0052. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Guggenheim Municipal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Guggenheim Municipal Income will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Guggenheim Municipal is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Guggenheim Municipal Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Municipal

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guggenheim Municipal in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
13.3213.4313.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.3513.4613.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Municipal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Municipal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Municipal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guggenheim Municipal.

Guggenheim Municipal Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guggenheim Municipal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guggenheim Municipal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guggenheim Municipal Income, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guggenheim Municipal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.04
β
Beta against DOW0.0052
σ
Overall volatility
0.09
Ir
Information ratio -0.64

Guggenheim Municipal Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guggenheim Municipal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guggenheim Municipal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guggenheim Municipal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Guggenheim Municipal is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.washingtonpost.com: Analysis Hedge Funds Are Feasting on ESGs Profit Leftovers - The Washington Post
The fund retains about 98.11% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

Guggenheim Municipal Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guggenheim Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guggenheim Municipal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guggenheim Municipal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.35
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.61%

Guggenheim Municipal Technical Analysis

Guggenheim Municipal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guggenheim Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guggenheim Municipal Income. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guggenheim Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Guggenheim Municipal Predictive Forecast Models

Guggenheim Municipal time-series forecasting models is one of many Guggenheim Municipal's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Guggenheim Municipal's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Guggenheim Municipal

Checking the ongoing alerts about Guggenheim Municipal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guggenheim Municipal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Guggenheim Municipal Alerts

Guggenheim Municipal Alerts and Suggestions

Guggenheim Municipal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Guggenheim Municipal is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.washingtonpost.com: Analysis Hedge Funds Are Feasting on ESGs Profit Leftovers - The Washington Post
The fund retains about 98.11% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
Please check Guggenheim Municipal Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Guggenheim Municipal Correlation, Guggenheim Municipal Hype Analysis, Guggenheim Municipal Volatility, Guggenheim Municipal History as well as Guggenheim Municipal Performance. Note that the Guggenheim Municipal information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Municipal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

Complementary Tools for Guggenheim Mutual Fund analysis

When running Guggenheim Municipal price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Municipal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Municipal is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Municipal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Municipal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Municipal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Municipal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Municipal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guggenheim Municipal value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Municipal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.