Guggenheim Municipal Income Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 13.52
| GIJPX Fund | USD 11.24 0.02 0.18% |
Guggenheim |
Guggenheim Municipal Target Price Odds to finish over 13.52
The tendency of Guggenheim Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 13.52 or more in 90 days |
| 11.24 | 90 days | 13.52 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guggenheim Municipal to move over $ 13.52 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Guggenheim Municipal Income probability density function shows the probability of Guggenheim Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guggenheim Municipal price to stay between its current price of $ 11.24 and $ 13.52 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Guggenheim Municipal has a beta of 0.0465. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Guggenheim Municipal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Guggenheim Municipal Income will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Guggenheim Municipal Income has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Guggenheim Municipal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Municipal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guggenheim Municipal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guggenheim Municipal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guggenheim Municipal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guggenheim Municipal Income, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guggenheim Municipal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.32 |
Guggenheim Municipal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guggenheim Municipal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guggenheim Municipal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Guggenheim Municipal generated five year return of 0.0% | |
| This fund retains about 97.71% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Guggenheim Municipal Technical Analysis
Guggenheim Municipal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guggenheim Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guggenheim Municipal Income. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guggenheim Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Guggenheim Municipal Predictive Forecast Models
Guggenheim Municipal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Guggenheim Municipal's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guggenheim Municipal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Guggenheim Municipal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Guggenheim Municipal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guggenheim Municipal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Guggenheim Municipal generated five year return of 0.0% | |
| This fund retains about 97.71% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Check out Guggenheim Municipal Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Guggenheim Municipal Correlation, Guggenheim Municipal Hype Analysis, Guggenheim Municipal Volatility, Guggenheim Municipal History as well as Guggenheim Municipal Performance. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.