Guggenheim Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 25.41

GIKRX -  USA Fund  

USD 25.41  0.01  0.0393%

Guggenheim Limited's future price is the expected price of Guggenheim Limited instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Guggenheim Limited Duration performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Please check Guggenheim Limited Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Guggenheim Limited Correlation, Guggenheim Limited Hype Analysis, Guggenheim Limited Volatility, Guggenheim Limited History as well as Guggenheim Limited Performance. Please specify Guggenheim Limited time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Guggenheim Limited odds to be computed.
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Guggenheim Limited Target Price Odds to finish over 25.41

The tendency of Guggenheim Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 25.41 90 days 25.41  about 99.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guggenheim Limited to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This Guggenheim Limited Duration probability density function shows the probability of Guggenheim Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Guggenheim Limited Duration has a beta of -0.0161. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Guggenheim Limited are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Guggenheim Limited Duration is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Guggenheim Limited is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Guggenheim Limited Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Limited

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Limited's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guggenheim Limited in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
25.3725.4125.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.3825.4225.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
25.3325.3725.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
25.4025.4525.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Limited. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Limited's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Limited's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guggenheim Limited.

Guggenheim Limited Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guggenheim Limited is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guggenheim Limited's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guggenheim Limited Duration, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guggenheim Limited within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.01
β
Beta against DOW-0.02
σ
Overall volatility
0.021586
Ir
Information ratio -0.98

Guggenheim Limited Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guggenheim Limited for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guggenheim Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guggenheim Limited generates negative expected return over the last 90 days
Guggenheim Limited is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains about 9.54% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

Guggenheim Limited Technical Analysis

Guggenheim Limited's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guggenheim Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guggenheim Limited Duration. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guggenheim Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Guggenheim Limited Predictive Forecast Models

Guggenheim Limited time-series forecasting models is one of many Guggenheim Limited's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Guggenheim Limited's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Guggenheim Limited

Checking the ongoing alerts about Guggenheim Limited for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guggenheim Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Guggenheim Limited Alerts

Guggenheim Limited Alerts and Suggestions

Guggenheim Limited generates negative expected return over the last 90 days
Guggenheim Limited is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains about 9.54% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
Please check Guggenheim Limited Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Guggenheim Limited Correlation, Guggenheim Limited Hype Analysis, Guggenheim Limited Volatility, Guggenheim Limited History as well as Guggenheim Limited Performance. Note that the Guggenheim Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Limited's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for Guggenheim Mutual Fund analysis

When running Guggenheim Limited price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Limited's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Limited is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Limited's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Limited's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Limited's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Limited to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Limited's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guggenheim Limited value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Limited's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.