Guggenheim Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 27.29

GIOPX -  USA Fund  

USD 27.29  0.01  0.0366%

Guggenheim Macro's future price is the expected price of Guggenheim Macro instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Please check Guggenheim Macro Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Guggenheim Macro Correlation, Guggenheim Macro Hype Analysis, Guggenheim Macro Volatility, Guggenheim Macro History as well as Guggenheim Macro Performance. Please specify Guggenheim Macro time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Guggenheim Macro odds to be computed.
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Guggenheim Macro Target Price Odds to finish over 27.29

The tendency of Guggenheim Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 27.29 90 days 27.29  about 58.27
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guggenheim Macro to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 58.27 (This Guggenheim Macro Opportunities probability density function shows the probability of Guggenheim Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Guggenheim Macro Opportunities has a beta of -0.0059. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Guggenheim Macro are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Guggenheim Macro Opportunities is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Guggenheim Macro Opp is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Guggenheim Macro Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Macro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Macro Opp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Macro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guggenheim Macro in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
27.2327.2927.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.2327.2927.35
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
27.2227.2927.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
27.1927.2627.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Macro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Macro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Macro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guggenheim Macro Opp.

Guggenheim Macro Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guggenheim Macro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guggenheim Macro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guggenheim Macro Opportunities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guggenheim Macro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.02
β
Beta against DOW-0.0059
σ
Overall volatility
0.047926
Ir
Information ratio -0.49

Guggenheim Macro Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guggenheim Macro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guggenheim Macro Opp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guggenheim Macro Opp generates negative expected return over the last 90 days
Guggenheim Macro Opp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains about 5.15% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

Guggenheim Macro Technical Analysis

Guggenheim Macro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guggenheim Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guggenheim Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Guggenheim Macro Predictive Forecast Models

Guggenheim Macro time-series forecasting models is one of many Guggenheim Macro's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Guggenheim Macro's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Guggenheim Macro Opp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Guggenheim Macro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guggenheim Macro Opp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Guggenheim Macro Alerts

Guggenheim Macro Alerts and Suggestions

Guggenheim Macro Opp generates negative expected return over the last 90 days
Guggenheim Macro Opp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains about 5.15% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
Please check Guggenheim Macro Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Guggenheim Macro Correlation, Guggenheim Macro Hype Analysis, Guggenheim Macro Volatility, Guggenheim Macro History as well as Guggenheim Macro Performance. Note that the Guggenheim Macro Opp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Macro's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

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When running Guggenheim Macro Opp price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Macro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Macro is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Macro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Macro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Macro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Macro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Macro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guggenheim Macro value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Macro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.