Goosehead Insurance Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 60.04
| GSHD Stock | USD 60.04 1.10 1.87% |
Closest to current price Goosehead long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Goosehead |
Goosehead Insurance Target Price Odds to finish over 60.04
The tendency of Goosehead Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 60.04 | 90 days | 60.04 | about 92.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Goosehead Insurance to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 92.15 (This Goosehead Insurance probability density function shows the probability of Goosehead Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.16 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Goosehead Insurance will likely underperform. Additionally Goosehead Insurance has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Goosehead Insurance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Goosehead Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Goosehead Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Goosehead Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Goosehead Insurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Goosehead Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Goosehead Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Goosehead Insurance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Goosehead Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.39 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Goosehead Insurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Goosehead Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Goosehead Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Goosehead Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Goosehead Insurance has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Goosehead Insurance has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Goosehead Insurance Earnings Expected to Grow What to Know Ahead of Q1 Release |
Goosehead Insurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Goosehead Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Goosehead Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Goosehead Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44 M |
Goosehead Insurance Technical Analysis
Goosehead Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Goosehead Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Goosehead Insurance. In general, you should focus on analyzing Goosehead Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Goosehead Insurance Predictive Forecast Models
Goosehead Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Goosehead Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Goosehead Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Goosehead Insurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Goosehead Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Goosehead Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Goosehead Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Goosehead Insurance has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Goosehead Insurance has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Goosehead Insurance Earnings Expected to Grow What to Know Ahead of Q1 Release |
Check out Goosehead Insurance Backtesting, Goosehead Insurance Valuation, Goosehead Insurance Correlation, Goosehead Insurance Hype Analysis, Goosehead Insurance Volatility, Goosehead Insurance History as well as Goosehead Insurance Performance. For information on how to trade Goosehead Stock refer to our How to Trade Goosehead Stock guide.Note that the Goosehead Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Goosehead Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Goosehead Stock analysis
When running Goosehead Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Goosehead Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Goosehead Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Goosehead Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Goosehead Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Goosehead Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Goosehead Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Goosehead Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Goosehead Insurance. If investors know Goosehead will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Goosehead Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.55 | Earnings Share 0.55 | Revenue Per Share 10.858 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.1 | Return On Assets 0.0583 |
The market value of Goosehead Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Goosehead that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Goosehead Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Goosehead Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Goosehead Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Goosehead Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Goosehead Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Goosehead Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Goosehead Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.