Guidewire Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 77.10

GWRE Stock

USD 77.10 0.75 0.96%

Guidewire Software's future price is the expected price of Guidewire Software instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Guidewire Software performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Guidewire Software Price to Sales Ratio is projected to slightly grow based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Price to Sales Ratio was at 9.19.

Guidewire Software's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Guidewire Software. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Guidewire Software based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Guidewire Software over a specific time period. For example, 2023-04-21 CALL at $75.0 is a CALL option contract on Guidewire Software's common stock with a strick price of 75.0 expiring on 2023-04-21. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 26 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $4.1, and an ask price of $5.2. The implied volatility as of the 26th of March is 40.5873. View All Guidewire options

Closest to current price Guidewire long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Check out Guidewire Software Backtesting, Guidewire Software Valuation, Guidewire Software Correlation, Guidewire Software Hype Analysis, Guidewire Software Volatility, Guidewire Software History as well as Guidewire Software Performance. For information on how to trade Guidewire Stock refer to our How to Trade Guidewire Stock guide.Please specify Guidewire Software time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Guidewire Software odds to be computed.

Guidewire Software Target Price Odds to finish over 77.10

The tendency of Guidewire Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.

Current Price	Horizon	Target Price	Odds to move above the current price in 90 days
77.10	90 days	77.10	about 11.81

Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guidewire Software to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 11.81 (This Guidewire Software probability density function shows the probability of Guidewire Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.14 . This usually indicates Guidewire Software market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Guidewire Software is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4082, implying that it can generate a 0.41 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).

Guidewire Software Price Density

Price

Predictive Modules for Guidewire Software

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guidewire Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guidewire Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guidewire Software in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
74.63	76.90	79.17

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
69.39	83.84	86.11

Details

Naive

Forecast

Low	Next Value	High
74.61	76.88	79.15

Details

12 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target Price	High
55.00	81.50	95.00

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guidewire Software. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guidewire Software's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guidewire Software's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guidewire Software.

Guidewire Software Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guidewire Software is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guidewire Software's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guidewire Software, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guidewire Software within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.

α	Alpha over NYSE Composite	0.41	Details
β	Beta against NYSE Composite	1.14	Details
σ	Overall volatility	5.42	Details
Ir	Information ratio	0.18	Details

Guidewire Software Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guidewire Software for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guidewire Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

	Guidewire Software is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	The company reported the previous year's revenue of 812.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (180.43 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 352.22 M.
	Guidewire Software currently holds about 988.31 M in cash with (37.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 11.75.
	Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
	Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Analysts Set Guidewire Software, Inc. Price Target at 82.90

Guidewire Software Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guidewire Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guidewire Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guidewire Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	83.6 M
	Cash And Short Term Investments	976.2 M

Guidewire Software Technical Analysis

Guidewire Software's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guidewire Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guidewire Software. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guidewire Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

Guidewire Software Predictive Forecast Models

Guidewire Software time-series forecasting models is one of many Guidewire Software's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Guidewire Software's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Guidewire Software

Checking the ongoing alerts about Guidewire Software for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guidewire Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

	Guidewire Software is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	The company reported the previous year's revenue of 812.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (180.43 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 352.22 M.
	Guidewire Software currently holds about 988.31 M in cash with (37.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 11.75.
	Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
	Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Analysts Set Guidewire Software, Inc. Price Target at 82.90

Check out Guidewire Software Backtesting, Guidewire Software Valuation, Guidewire Software Correlation, Guidewire Software Hype Analysis, Guidewire Software Volatility, Guidewire Software History as well as Guidewire Software Performance. For information on how to trade Guidewire Stock refer to our How to Trade Guidewire Stock guide. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Guidewire Software price analysis, check to measure Guidewire Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guidewire Software is operating at the current time. Most of Guidewire Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guidewire Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guidewire Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guidewire Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Guidewire Software's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guidewire Software. If investors know Guidewire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guidewire Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

0.66

Earnings Share

(1.97)

Revenue Per Share

10.456

Quarterly Revenue Growth

0.137

Return On Assets

(0.06)

The market value of Guidewire Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guidewire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guidewire Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guidewire Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guidewire Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guidewire Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Guidewire Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guidewire Software value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guidewire Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

Guidewire Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 77.10

Closest to current price Guidewire long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Guidewire Software Target Price Odds to finish over 77.10

Predictive Modules for Guidewire Software

Guidewire Software Risk Indicators

Guidewire Software Alerts and Suggestions

Guidewire Software Price Density Drivers

Guidewire Software Technical Analysis

Guidewire Software Predictive Forecast Models

Things to note about Guidewire Software

Complementary Tools for analysis

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