Hawaiian Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 25.07

HA Stock  USD 13.33  0.01  0.08%   
Hawaiian Holdings' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Hawaiian Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Hawaiian Holdings based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Hawaiian Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $14.0 is a CALL option contract on Hawaiian Holdings' common stock with a strick price of 14.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 12:56:55 for $0.12 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.15. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 26.85. View All Hawaiian options

Closest to current price Hawaiian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Hawaiian Holdings' future price is the expected price of Hawaiian Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Hawaiian Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Hawaiian Holdings Backtesting, Hawaiian Holdings Valuation, Hawaiian Holdings Correlation, Hawaiian Holdings Hype Analysis, Hawaiian Holdings Volatility, Hawaiian Holdings History as well as Hawaiian Holdings Performance.
For information on how to trade Hawaiian Stock refer to our How to Trade Hawaiian Stock guide.
  
At present, Hawaiian Holdings' Price To Sales Ratio is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Book Value Ratio is expected to grow to 8.06, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to (2.95). Please specify Hawaiian Holdings' target price for which you would like Hawaiian Holdings odds to be computed.

Hawaiian Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 25.07

The tendency of Hawaiian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 25.07  or more in 90 days
 13.33 90 days 25.07 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hawaiian Holdings to move over $ 25.07  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Hawaiian Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Hawaiian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hawaiian Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 13.33  and $ 25.07  at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Hawaiian Holdings has a beta of 0.86. This usually indicates Hawaiian Holdings market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Hawaiian Holdings is expected to follow. Additionally Hawaiian Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Hawaiian Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Hawaiian Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hawaiian Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hawaiian Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.2413.3214.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.0010.0814.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.8712.9614.04
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
5.926.507.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hawaiian Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hawaiian Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hawaiian Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hawaiian Holdings.

Hawaiian Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hawaiian Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hawaiian Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hawaiian Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hawaiian Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.86
σ
Overall volatility
0.32
Ir
Information ratio -0.17

Hawaiian Holdings Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hawaiian Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hawaiian Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Hawaiian Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company generated the yearly revenue of 2.72 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (260.49 M) with gross profit of 227.08 M.
Hawaiian Holdings reports about 1.43 B in cash with (160 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 27.77, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Hawaiian Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Hawaiian, Alaska Air enter timing agreement with DOJ over deal

Hawaiian Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hawaiian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hawaiian Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hawaiian Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding51.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments925.7 M

Hawaiian Holdings Technical Analysis

Hawaiian Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hawaiian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hawaiian Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hawaiian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Hawaiian Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

Hawaiian Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Hawaiian Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hawaiian Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Hawaiian Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Hawaiian Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hawaiian Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Hawaiian Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company generated the yearly revenue of 2.72 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (260.49 M) with gross profit of 227.08 M.
Hawaiian Holdings reports about 1.43 B in cash with (160 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 27.77, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Hawaiian Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Hawaiian, Alaska Air enter timing agreement with DOJ over deal
When determining whether Hawaiian Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hawaiian Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hawaiian Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hawaiian Holdings Stock:
Check out Hawaiian Holdings Backtesting, Hawaiian Holdings Valuation, Hawaiian Holdings Correlation, Hawaiian Holdings Hype Analysis, Hawaiian Holdings Volatility, Hawaiian Holdings History as well as Hawaiian Holdings Performance.
For information on how to trade Hawaiian Stock refer to our How to Trade Hawaiian Stock guide.
Note that the Hawaiian Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hawaiian Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

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When running Hawaiian Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Hawaiian Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hawaiian Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Hawaiian Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hawaiian Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hawaiian Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hawaiian Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hawaiian Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hawaiian Holdings. If investors know Hawaiian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hawaiian Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.08)
Earnings Share
(5.05)
Revenue Per Share
52.645
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.09)
Return On Assets
(0.05)
The market value of Hawaiian Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hawaiian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hawaiian Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hawaiian Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hawaiian Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hawaiian Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hawaiian Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hawaiian Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hawaiian Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.