Hrcules SA (Brazil) Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Under 2.05
| HETA4 Preferred Stock | BRL 6.99 0.15 2.19% |
Hrcules |
Hrcules SA Target Price Odds to finish below 2.05
The tendency of Hrcules Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 2.05 or more in 90 days |
| 6.99 | 90 days | 2.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hrcules SA to drop to R$ 2.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Hrcules SA probability density function shows the probability of Hrcules Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hrcules SA price to stay between R$ 2.05 and its current price of R$6.99 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hrcules SA has a beta of -0.0106. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Hrcules SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Hrcules SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Hrcules SA has an alpha of 0.4205, implying that it can generate a 0.42 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Hrcules SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hrcules SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hrcules SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hrcules SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hrcules SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hrcules SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hrcules SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hrcules SA , one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hrcules SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Hrcules SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hrcules SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hrcules SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hrcules SA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Hrcules SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Hrcules SA has accumulated 324.58 M in total debt. Hrcules SA has a current ratio of 0.01, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Hrcules SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Hrcules SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Hrcules SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Hrcules to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Hrcules SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Hrcules SA has accumulated about 0 in cash with (1 K) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 54.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Hrcules SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hrcules Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hrcules SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hrcules SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 510 K |
Hrcules SA Technical Analysis
Hrcules SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hrcules Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hrcules SA . In general, you should focus on analyzing Hrcules Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hrcules SA Predictive Forecast Models
Hrcules SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hrcules SA's preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hrcules SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hrcules SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hrcules SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hrcules SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hrcules SA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Hrcules SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Hrcules SA has accumulated 324.58 M in total debt. Hrcules SA has a current ratio of 0.01, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Hrcules SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Hrcules SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Hrcules SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Hrcules to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Hrcules SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Hrcules SA has accumulated about 0 in cash with (1 K) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 54.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Hrcules Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Hrcules SA's price analysis, check to measure Hrcules SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hrcules SA is operating at the current time. Most of Hrcules SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hrcules SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hrcules SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hrcules SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.