Herc Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 159.62

HRI Stock  USD 159.62  0.55  0.35%   
Herc Holdings' future price is the expected price of Herc Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Herc Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Herc Holdings Price to Earnings Ratio are increasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of Price to Earnings Ratio was reported at 23.78. The current Price to Sales Ratio is estimated to increase to 2.77, while Price to Book Value is projected to decrease to 4.61.
  
Herc Holdings' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Herc Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Herc Holdings based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Herc Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2023-02-17 CALL at $160.0 is a CALL option contract on Herc Holdings' common stock with a strick price of 160.0 expiring on 2023-02-17. The contract was last traded on 2023-02-01 at 10:54:30 for $3.9 and, as of today, has 11 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $4.3, and an ask price of $7.6. The implied volatility as of the 6th of February is 48.478. View All Herc Holdings options

Closest to current price Herc Holdings long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Herc Holdings Backtesting, Herc Holdings Valuation, Herc Holdings Correlation, Herc Holdings Hype Analysis, Herc Holdings Volatility, Herc Holdings History as well as Herc Holdings Performance. Please specify Herc Holdings time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Herc Holdings odds to be computed.

Herc Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 159.62

The tendency of Herc Holdings Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 159.62 90 days 159.62 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Herc Holdings to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Herc Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Herc Holdings Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.57 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Herc Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.3003, implying that it can generate a 0.3 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Herc Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Herc Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Herc Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Herc Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Herc Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
157.31159.62161.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
143.66176.64178.95
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
159.97162.27164.58
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
161.00202.75225.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Herc Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Herc Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Herc Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Herc Holdings.

Herc Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Herc Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Herc Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Herc Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Herc Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.30
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.57
σ
Overall volatility
10.37
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

Herc Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Herc Holdings Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Herc Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Herc Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding30.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments35 M

Herc Holdings Technical Analysis

Herc Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Herc Holdings Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Herc Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Herc Holdings Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Herc Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

Herc Holdings time-series forecasting models is one of many Herc Holdings' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Herc Holdings' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Herc Holdings Investors Sentiment

The influence of Herc Holdings' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Herc Holdings. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Herc Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Herc Holdings. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Herc Holdings can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Herc Holdings. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Herc Holdings' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Herc Holdings' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Herc Holdings' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Herc Holdings.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Herc Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Herc Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Herc Holdings options trading.
Please check Herc Holdings Backtesting, Herc Holdings Valuation, Herc Holdings Correlation, Herc Holdings Hype Analysis, Herc Holdings Volatility, Herc Holdings History as well as Herc Holdings Performance. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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Is Herc Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Herc Holdings. If investors know Herc Holdings will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Herc Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.418
Market Capitalization
4.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.354
Return On Assets
0.063
Return On Equity
0.3051
The market value of Herc Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Herc Holdings that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Herc Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Herc Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Herc Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Herc Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Herc Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Herc Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Herc Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.