Herc Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 122.40
| HRI Stock | USD 151.27 1.26 0.83% |
Closest to current price Herc long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Herc |
Herc Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 122.40
The tendency of Herc Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 122.40 or more in 90 days |
| 151.27 | 90 days | 122.40 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Herc Holdings to drop to $ 122.40 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Herc Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Herc Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Herc Holdings price to stay between $ 122.40 and its current price of $151.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.17 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.32 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Herc Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally Herc Holdings has an alpha of 0.0414, implying that it can generate a 0.0414 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Herc Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Herc Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Herc Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Herc Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Herc Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Herc Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Herc Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Herc Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Herc Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Herc Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Herc Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Herc Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Herc Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Herc Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 7th of March 2024 Herc Holdings paid $ 0.665 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from nypost.com: John Catsimatidis Red Apple Group taps energy exec to lead rollout of small nuclear reactors |
Herc Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Herc Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Herc Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Herc Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 71 M |
Herc Holdings Technical Analysis
Herc Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Herc Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Herc Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Herc Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Herc Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Herc Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Herc Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Herc Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Herc Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Herc Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Herc Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Herc Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Herc Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 7th of March 2024 Herc Holdings paid $ 0.665 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from nypost.com: John Catsimatidis Red Apple Group taps energy exec to lead rollout of small nuclear reactors |
Check out Herc Holdings Backtesting, Herc Holdings Valuation, Herc Holdings Correlation, Herc Holdings Hype Analysis, Herc Holdings Volatility, Herc Holdings History as well as Herc Holdings Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Herc Stock please use our How to Invest in Herc Holdings guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Complementary Tools for Herc Stock analysis
When running Herc Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Herc Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Herc Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Herc Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Herc Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Herc Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Herc Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Herc Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Herc Holdings. If investors know Herc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Herc Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Dividend Share 2.53 | Earnings Share 12.09 | Revenue Per Share 115.158 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.057 |
The market value of Herc Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Herc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Herc Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Herc Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Herc Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Herc Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Herc Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Herc Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Herc Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.