Heat Biologics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.68

HTBX -  USA Stock  

USD 5.68  0.03  0.53%

Heat Biologics' future price is the expected price of Heat Biologics instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Heat Biologics performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is likely to rise to 1.44 in 2021, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (3.55)  in 2021.

Heat Biologics Price Probability 

 
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Heat Biologics' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Heat Biologics. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Heat Biologics based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Heat Biologics over a specific time period. For example, 2021-11-19 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Heat Biologics' common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2021-11-19. The contract was last traded on 2021-10-20 at 13:28:26 for $0.95 and, as of today, has 29 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.8, and an ask price of $1.0. The implied volatility as of the 21st of October is 93.4153. View All Heat Biologics options

Closest to current price Heat Biologics long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Heat Biologics Backtesting, Heat Biologics Valuation, Heat Biologics Correlation, Heat Biologics Hype Analysis, Heat Biologics Volatility, Heat Biologics History as well as Heat Biologics Performance. Please specify Heat Biologics time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Heat Biologics odds to be computed.
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Heat Biologics Target Price Odds to finish over 5.68

The tendency of Heat Biologics Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 5.68 90 days 5.68  over 95.04
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Heat Biologics to move above the current price in 90 days from now is over 95.04 (This Heat Biologics probability density function shows the probability of Heat Biologics Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Heat Biologics has a beta of 0.27. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Heat Biologics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Heat Biologics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Heat Biologics is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Heat Biologics Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Heat Biologics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heat Biologics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Heat Biologics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Heat Biologics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3.125.638.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.119.3211.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
3.055.568.07
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
15.0020.8033.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Heat Biologics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Heat Biologics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Heat Biologics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Heat Biologics.

Heat Biologics Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Heat Biologics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Heat Biologics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Heat Biologics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Heat Biologics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.18
β
Beta against DOW0.27
σ
Overall volatility
0.37
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Heat Biologics Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Heat Biologics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Heat Biologics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Heat Biologics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Heat Biologics is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.58 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.29 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (9.99 M).
Heat Biologics currently holds about 132.06 M in cash with (21.09 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.23.
Heat Biologics has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from www.equities.com: Heat gains 2.07 percent in Light Trading on October 13 - Equities.com

Heat Biologics Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Heat Biologics Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Heat Biologics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heat Biologics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out9.25%
Short Percent Of Float9.68%
Float Shares24.16M
Shares Short Prior Month2.61M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day145.96k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month244.12k
Date Short Interest28th of May 2021

Heat Biologics Technical Analysis

Heat Biologics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Heat Biologics Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Heat Biologics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Heat Biologics Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Heat Biologics Predictive Forecast Models

Heat Biologics time-series forecasting models is one of many Heat Biologics' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Heat Biologics' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Heat Biologics

Checking the ongoing alerts about Heat Biologics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Heat Biologics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Heat Biologics Alerts

Heat Biologics Alerts and Suggestions

Heat Biologics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Heat Biologics is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.58 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.29 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (9.99 M).
Heat Biologics currently holds about 132.06 M in cash with (21.09 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.23.
Heat Biologics has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from www.equities.com: Heat gains 2.07 percent in Light Trading on October 13 - Equities.com
Please check Heat Biologics Backtesting, Heat Biologics Valuation, Heat Biologics Correlation, Heat Biologics Hype Analysis, Heat Biologics Volatility, Heat Biologics History as well as Heat Biologics Performance. Note that the Heat Biologics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Heat Biologics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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When running Heat Biologics price analysis, check to measure Heat Biologics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heat Biologics is operating at the current time. Most of Heat Biologics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heat Biologics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heat Biologics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heat Biologics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Heat Biologics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heat Biologics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heat Biologics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heat Biologics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heat Biologics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heat Biologics underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heat Biologics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Heat Biologics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heat Biologics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.