Ivy Natural Resources Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 0.0
| IGNCX Fund | USD 13.71 0.05 0.37% |
IVY |
Ivy Natural Target Price Odds to finish over 0.0
The tendency of IVY Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 0.00 in 90 days |
| 13.71 | 90 days | 0.00 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ivy Natural to stay above $ 0.00 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ivy Natural Resources probability density function shows the probability of IVY Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ivy Natural Resources price to stay between $ 0.00 and its current price of $13.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.87 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.07 . This usually indicates Ivy Natural Resources market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Ivy Natural is expected to follow. Additionally Ivy Natural Resources has an alpha of 0.2004, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ivy Natural Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ivy Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ivy Natural Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ivy Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ivy Natural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ivy Natural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ivy Natural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ivy Natural Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ivy Natural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Ivy Natural Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ivy Natural for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ivy Natural Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated-5.0 ten year return of -5.0% | |
| Ivy Natural Resources retains 95.67% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Ivy Natural Technical Analysis
Ivy Natural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. IVY Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ivy Natural Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing IVY Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ivy Natural Predictive Forecast Models
Ivy Natural's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ivy Natural's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ivy Natural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ivy Natural Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ivy Natural for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ivy Natural Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated-5.0 ten year return of -5.0% | |
| Ivy Natural Resources retains 95.67% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Check out Ivy Natural Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Ivy Natural Correlation, Ivy Natural Hype Analysis, Ivy Natural Volatility, Ivy Natural History as well as Ivy Natural Performance. Note that the Ivy Natural Resources information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ivy Natural's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.