Incyte Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 70.37

INCY -  USA Stock  

USD 70.37  1.99  2.91%

Incyte Corp's future price is the expected price of Incyte Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Incyte Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Incyte Corp Price to Book Value is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Incyte Corp reported Price to Book Value of 7.29 in 2020. Price to Sales Ratio is likely to rise to 9.97 in 2021, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (65.64)  in 2021.

Incyte Price Probability 

 
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Incyte Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Incyte Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Incyte Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Incyte Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2021-12-17 CALL at $70.0 is a CALL option contract on Incyte Corp's common stock with a strick price of 70.0 expiring on 2021-12-17. The contract was last traded on 2021-11-26 at 12:52:52 for $4.8 and, as of today, has 18 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.5, and an ask price of $5.1. The implied volatility as of the 29th of November is 84.2975. View All Incyte options

Closest to current price Incyte long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please see Incyte Corp Backtesting, Incyte Corp Valuation, Incyte Corp Correlation, Incyte Corp Hype Analysis, Incyte Corp Volatility, Incyte Corp History as well as Incyte Corp Performance. Please specify Incyte Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Incyte Corp odds to be computed.
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Incyte Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 70.37

The tendency of Incyte Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 70.37 90 days 70.37  about 35.51
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Incyte Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 35.51 (This Incyte Corp probability density function shows the probability of Incyte Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Incyte Corp has a beta of 0.14. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Incyte Corp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Incyte Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Incyte Corp is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Incyte Corp Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Incyte Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Incyte Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Incyte Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Incyte Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
62.8065.1367.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
58.6267.9870.31
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
66.0088.42109.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.012.252.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Incyte Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Incyte Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Incyte Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Incyte Corp.

Incyte Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Incyte Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Incyte Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Incyte Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Incyte Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.14
β
Beta against DOW0.14
σ
Overall volatility
4.28
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Incyte Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Incyte Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Incyte Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Incyte Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Incyte Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.lse.co.uk: US close Street finishes mixed after tsunami of pre-Thanksgiving data Financial News - London South East

Incyte Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Incyte Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Incyte Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Incyte Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.67%
Short Percent Of Float3.80%
Float Shares186.3M
Shares Short Prior Month5.16M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.43M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.68M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2021

Incyte Corp Technical Analysis

Incyte Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Incyte Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Incyte Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Incyte Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Incyte Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Incyte Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Incyte Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Incyte Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Incyte Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Incyte Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Incyte Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Incyte Corp Alerts

Incyte Corp Alerts and Suggestions

Incyte Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Incyte Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.lse.co.uk: US close Street finishes mixed after tsunami of pre-Thanksgiving data Financial News - London South East
Please see Incyte Corp Backtesting, Incyte Corp Valuation, Incyte Corp Correlation, Incyte Corp Hype Analysis, Incyte Corp Volatility, Incyte Corp History as well as Incyte Corp Performance. Note that the Incyte Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Incyte Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Incyte Stock analysis

When running Incyte Corp price analysis, check to measure Incyte Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Incyte Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Incyte Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Incyte Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Incyte Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Incyte Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Incyte Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Incyte Corp. If investors know Incyte will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Incyte Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Incyte Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Incyte that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Incyte Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Incyte Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Incyte Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Incyte Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Incyte Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Incyte Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Incyte Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.