Innovage Holding Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.14
| INNV Stock | USD 4.14 0.14 3.50% |
Closest to current price InnovAge long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
InnovAge |
InnovAge Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 4.14
The tendency of InnovAge Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 4.14 | 90 days | 4.14 | about 92.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of InnovAge Holding to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 92.62 (This InnovAge Holding Corp probability density function shows the probability of InnovAge Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.58 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, InnovAge Holding will likely underperform. Additionally InnovAge Holding Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. InnovAge Holding Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for InnovAge Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as InnovAge Holding Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of InnovAge Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
InnovAge Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. InnovAge Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the InnovAge Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold InnovAge Holding Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of InnovAge Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.61 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.58 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
InnovAge Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of InnovAge Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for InnovAge Holding Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| InnovAge Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| InnovAge Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 688.09 M. Net Loss for the year was (43.55 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 475.82 M. | |
| About 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Agape ATP vs. InnovAge Financial Comparison - Defense World |
InnovAge Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of InnovAge Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential InnovAge Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. InnovAge Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 135.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 173.5 M |
InnovAge Holding Technical Analysis
InnovAge Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. InnovAge Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of InnovAge Holding Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing InnovAge Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
InnovAge Holding Predictive Forecast Models
InnovAge Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many InnovAge Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary InnovAge Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about InnovAge Holding Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about InnovAge Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for InnovAge Holding Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| InnovAge Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| InnovAge Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 688.09 M. Net Loss for the year was (43.55 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 475.82 M. | |
| About 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Agape ATP vs. InnovAge Financial Comparison - Defense World |
Check out InnovAge Holding Backtesting, InnovAge Holding Valuation, InnovAge Holding Correlation, InnovAge Holding Hype Analysis, InnovAge Holding Volatility, InnovAge Holding History as well as InnovAge Holding Performance. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for InnovAge Stock analysis
When running InnovAge Holding's price analysis, check to measure InnovAge Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy InnovAge Holding is operating at the current time. Most of InnovAge Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of InnovAge Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move InnovAge Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of InnovAge Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is InnovAge Holding's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of InnovAge Holding. If investors know InnovAge will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about InnovAge Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.88) | Earnings Share (0.23) | Revenue Per Share 5.311 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.128 | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of InnovAge Holding Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of InnovAge that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of InnovAge Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is InnovAge Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because InnovAge Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect InnovAge Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between InnovAge Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if InnovAge Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, InnovAge Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.