Jabil Circuit Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 81.77
| JBL Stock | USD 132.66 1.41 1.05% |
Closest to current price Jabil long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Jabil |
Jabil Circuit Target Price Odds to finish below 81.77
The tendency of Jabil Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 81.77 or more in 90 days |
| 132.66 | 90 days | 81.77 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Jabil Circuit to drop to $ 81.77 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Jabil Circuit probability density function shows the probability of Jabil Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Jabil Circuit price to stay between $ 81.77 and its current price of $132.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 38.3 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.72 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Jabil Circuit will likely underperform. Additionally Jabil Circuit has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Jabil Circuit Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Jabil Circuit
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jabil Circuit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jabil Circuit's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Jabil Circuit Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Jabil Circuit is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Jabil Circuit's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Jabil Circuit, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Jabil Circuit within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
Jabil Circuit Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Jabil Circuit for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Jabil Circuit can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 4th of March 2024 Jabil Circuit paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Jabil Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly |
Jabil Circuit Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Jabil Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Jabil Circuit's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jabil Circuit's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 135.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
Jabil Circuit Technical Analysis
Jabil Circuit's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Jabil Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Jabil Circuit. In general, you should focus on analyzing Jabil Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Jabil Circuit Predictive Forecast Models
Jabil Circuit's time-series forecasting models is one of many Jabil Circuit's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Jabil Circuit's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Jabil Circuit
Checking the ongoing alerts about Jabil Circuit for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Jabil Circuit help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 4th of March 2024 Jabil Circuit paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Jabil Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly |
Check out Jabil Circuit Backtesting, Jabil Circuit Valuation, Jabil Circuit Correlation, Jabil Circuit Hype Analysis, Jabil Circuit Volatility, Jabil Circuit History as well as Jabil Circuit Performance. For more information on how to buy Jabil Stock please use our How to buy in Jabil Stock guide.Note that the Jabil Circuit information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jabil Circuit's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Complementary Tools for Jabil Stock analysis
When running Jabil Circuit's price analysis, check to measure Jabil Circuit's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jabil Circuit is operating at the current time. Most of Jabil Circuit's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jabil Circuit's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jabil Circuit's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jabil Circuit to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Jabil Circuit's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jabil Circuit. If investors know Jabil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jabil Circuit listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.809 | Dividend Share 0.32 | Earnings Share 11.54 | Revenue Per Share 247.585 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of Jabil Circuit is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jabil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jabil Circuit's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jabil Circuit's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jabil Circuit's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jabil Circuit's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jabil Circuit's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Jabil Circuit is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jabil Circuit's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.