JCHOX Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 15.02

JCHOX -  USA Fund  

USD 15.02  0.03  0.20%

John Hancock's future price is the expected price of John Hancock instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of John Hancock Funds performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

JCHOX Price Probability 

 
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Please see John Hancock Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, John Hancock Correlation, John Hancock Hype Analysis, John Hancock Volatility, John Hancock History as well as John Hancock Performance. Please specify John Hancock time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like John Hancock odds to be computed.
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John Hancock Target Price Odds to finish over 15.02

The tendency of JCHOX Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 15.02 90 days 15.02  about 11.97
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of John Hancock to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 11.97 (This John Hancock Funds probability density function shows the probability of JCHOX Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon John Hancock has a beta of 0.0983. This indicates as returns on the market go up, John Hancock average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding John Hancock Funds will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0319, implying that it can generate a 0.0319 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 John Hancock Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for John Hancock

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Hancock Funds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of John Hancock's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of John Hancock in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
14.4615.0215.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.4014.9615.52
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
14.7815.3415.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
14.3114.7115.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as John Hancock. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against John Hancock's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, John Hancock's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in John Hancock Funds.

John Hancock Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. John Hancock is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the John Hancock's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold John Hancock Funds, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of John Hancock within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.031861
β
Beta against DOW0.1
σ
Overall volatility
0.17
Ir
Information ratio 0.013224

John Hancock Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of John Hancock for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for John Hancock Funds can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
John Hancock Funds is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains about 17.25% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

John Hancock Technical Analysis

John Hancock's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JCHOX Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of John Hancock Funds. In general, you should focus on analyzing JCHOX Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

John Hancock Predictive Forecast Models

John Hancock time-series forecasting models is one of many John Hancock's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary John Hancock's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about John Hancock Funds

Checking the ongoing alerts about John Hancock for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for John Hancock Funds help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

John Hancock Alerts

John Hancock Alerts and Suggestions

John Hancock Funds is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund retains about 17.25% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
Please see John Hancock Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, John Hancock Correlation, John Hancock Hype Analysis, John Hancock Volatility, John Hancock History as well as John Hancock Performance. Note that the John Hancock Funds information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other John Hancock's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for JCHOX Mutual Fund analysis

When running John Hancock Funds price analysis, check to measure John Hancock's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy John Hancock is operating at the current time. Most of John Hancock's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of John Hancock's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move John Hancock's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of John Hancock to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between John Hancock's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine John Hancock value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, John Hancock's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.