Aurora Mobile Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.87

JG Stock  USD 3.58  0.47  15.11%   
Aurora Mobile's future price is the expected price of Aurora Mobile instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Aurora Mobile performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Aurora Mobile Backtesting, Aurora Mobile Valuation, Aurora Mobile Correlation, Aurora Mobile Hype Analysis, Aurora Mobile Volatility, Aurora Mobile History as well as Aurora Mobile Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Aurora Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurora Mobile guide.
  
At this time, Aurora Mobile's Price To Book Ratio is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Aurora Mobile's current Price Fair Value is estimated to increase to 77.31, while Price To Sales Ratio is projected to decrease to 34.89. Please specify Aurora Mobile's target price for which you would like Aurora Mobile odds to be computed.

Aurora Mobile Target Price Odds to finish below 0.87

The tendency of Aurora Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 0.87  or more in 90 days
 3.58 90 days 0.87 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurora Mobile to drop to $ 0.87  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aurora Mobile probability density function shows the probability of Aurora Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aurora Mobile price to stay between $ 0.87  and its current price of $3.58 at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.13 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.92 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aurora Mobile will likely underperform. Additionally Aurora Mobile has an alpha of 0.7969, implying that it can generate a 0.8 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Aurora Mobile Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Aurora Mobile

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora Mobile. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurora Mobile's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.183.6811.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.102.089.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.073.3210.93
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.061.161.29
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aurora Mobile. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aurora Mobile's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aurora Mobile's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aurora Mobile.

Aurora Mobile Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurora Mobile is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurora Mobile's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurora Mobile, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurora Mobile within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.80
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.92
σ
Overall volatility
0.45
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

Aurora Mobile Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurora Mobile for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurora Mobile can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aurora Mobile is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Aurora Mobile appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Aurora Mobile has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reports 5 M of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.73, which is normal for its line of buisiness. Aurora Mobile has a current ratio of 0.78, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Debt can assist Aurora Mobile until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Aurora Mobile's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Aurora Mobile sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Aurora to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Aurora Mobile's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity generated the yearly revenue of 299.74 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (78.17 M) with gross profit of 225.76 M.
Aurora Mobile reports about 111.84 M in cash with (17.48 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.94.
Aurora Mobile has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Aurora Mobiles GPTBots.AI to Team up with Moonshot AI

Aurora Mobile Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurora Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurora Mobile's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurora Mobile's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding118.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments116.1 M

Aurora Mobile Technical Analysis

Aurora Mobile's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurora Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurora Mobile. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurora Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Aurora Mobile Predictive Forecast Models

Aurora Mobile's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurora Mobile's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurora Mobile's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Aurora Mobile

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurora Mobile for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurora Mobile help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aurora Mobile is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Aurora Mobile appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Aurora Mobile has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reports 5 M of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.73, which is normal for its line of buisiness. Aurora Mobile has a current ratio of 0.78, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Debt can assist Aurora Mobile until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Aurora Mobile's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Aurora Mobile sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Aurora to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Aurora Mobile's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity generated the yearly revenue of 299.74 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (78.17 M) with gross profit of 225.76 M.
Aurora Mobile reports about 111.84 M in cash with (17.48 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.94.
Aurora Mobile has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Aurora Mobiles GPTBots.AI to Team up with Moonshot AI
When determining whether Aurora Mobile is a strong investment it is important to analyze Aurora Mobile's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Aurora Mobile's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Aurora Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Aurora Mobile Backtesting, Aurora Mobile Valuation, Aurora Mobile Correlation, Aurora Mobile Hype Analysis, Aurora Mobile Volatility, Aurora Mobile History as well as Aurora Mobile Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Aurora Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurora Mobile guide.
Note that the Aurora Mobile information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aurora Mobile's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for Aurora Stock analysis

When running Aurora Mobile's price analysis, check to measure Aurora Mobile's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurora Mobile is operating at the current time. Most of Aurora Mobile's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurora Mobile's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurora Mobile's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurora Mobile to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aurora Mobile's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurora Mobile. If investors know Aurora will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurora Mobile listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.83)
Revenue Per Share
48.562
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.11)
Return On Assets
(0.08)
Return On Equity
(0.49)
The market value of Aurora Mobile is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurora that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurora Mobile's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurora Mobile's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurora Mobile's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurora Mobile's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurora Mobile's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurora Mobile is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurora Mobile's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.