Joann Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.71

JOAN -  USA Stock  

USD 11.71  0.07  0.60%

Joann's future price is the expected price of Joann instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Joann Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Joann's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Joann Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Joann based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Joann Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2021-10-15 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Joann's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2021-10-15. The contract was last traded on 2021-09-24 at 15:16:49 for $0.3 and, as of today, has 19 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.3, and an ask price of $0.35. The implied volatility as of the 27th of September is 56.7387. View All Joann options

Closest to current price Joann long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please see Joann Backtesting, Joann Valuation, Joann Correlation, Joann Hype Analysis, Joann Volatility, Joann History as well as Joann Performance. Please specify Joann time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Joann odds to be computed.
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Joann Target Price Odds to finish over 11.71

The tendency of Joann Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 11.71 90 days 11.71  about 91.27
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Joann to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 91.27 (This Joann Inc probability density function shows the probability of Joann Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Joann Inc has a beta of -0.35. This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Joann are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Joann Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Joann Inc is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Joann Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Joann

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Joann Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Joann's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Joann in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.7911.5215.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.5313.2616.99
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
8.9712.7016.43
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.0016.1424.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Joann. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Joann's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Joann's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Joann Inc.

Joann Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Joann is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Joann's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Joann Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Joann within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.37
β
Beta against DOW-0.35
σ
Overall volatility
1.79
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Joann Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Joann for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Joann Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Joann Inc generates negative expected return over the last 90 days
Joann Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Joann Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.62 B. Net Loss for the year was (184.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.11 B.
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Purchase by Duliga Janet of 1700 shares of Joann

Joann Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Joann Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Joann's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Joann's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Float Shares5.31M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.45M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.45M

Joann Technical Analysis

Joann's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Joann Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Joann Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Joann Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Joann Predictive Forecast Models

Joann time-series forecasting models is one of many Joann's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Joann's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Joann Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Joann for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Joann Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Joann Alerts

Joann Alerts and Suggestions

Joann Inc generates negative expected return over the last 90 days
Joann Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Joann Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.62 B. Net Loss for the year was (184.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.11 B.
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Purchase by Duliga Janet of 1700 shares of Joann
Please see Joann Backtesting, Joann Valuation, Joann Correlation, Joann Hype Analysis, Joann Volatility, Joann History as well as Joann Performance. Note that the Joann Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Joann's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Joann Stock analysis

When running Joann Inc price analysis, check to measure Joann's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Joann is operating at the current time. Most of Joann's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Joann's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Joann's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Joann to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Joann Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Joann that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Joann's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Joann's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Joann's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Joann Inc underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Joann's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Joann value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Joann's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.