Kaiser Aluminum Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 118.48

KALU Stock  USD 89.36  1.16  1.32%   
Kaiser Aluminum's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Kaiser Aluminum. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Kaiser Aluminum based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Kaiser Aluminum over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $90.0 is a CALL option contract on Kaiser Aluminum's common stock with a strick price of 90.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.0, and an ask price of $4.9. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 43.4. View All Kaiser options

Closest to current price Kaiser long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Kaiser Aluminum's future price is the expected price of Kaiser Aluminum instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Kaiser Aluminum performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Kaiser Aluminum Backtesting, Kaiser Aluminum Valuation, Kaiser Aluminum Correlation, Kaiser Aluminum Hype Analysis, Kaiser Aluminum Volatility, Kaiser Aluminum History as well as Kaiser Aluminum Performance.
For more information on how to buy Kaiser Stock please use our How to Invest in Kaiser Aluminum guide.
  
At this time, Kaiser Aluminum's Price Fair Value is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Please specify Kaiser Aluminum's target price for which you would like Kaiser Aluminum odds to be computed.

Kaiser Aluminum Target Price Odds to finish over 118.48

The tendency of Kaiser Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 118.48  or more in 90 days
 89.36 90 days 118.48 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kaiser Aluminum to move over $ 118.48  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Kaiser Aluminum probability density function shows the probability of Kaiser Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kaiser Aluminum price to stay between its current price of $ 89.36  and $ 118.48  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.16 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Kaiser Aluminum will likely underperform. Additionally Kaiser Aluminum has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Kaiser Aluminum Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Kaiser Aluminum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kaiser Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kaiser Aluminum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
87.8790.3092.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
75.9078.3398.30
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
85.9688.3990.82
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
67.8074.5082.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kaiser Aluminum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kaiser Aluminum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kaiser Aluminum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kaiser Aluminum.

Kaiser Aluminum Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kaiser Aluminum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kaiser Aluminum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kaiser Aluminum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kaiser Aluminum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.01
β
Beta against NYSE Composite3.16
σ
Overall volatility
7.08
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

Kaiser Aluminum Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kaiser Aluminum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kaiser Aluminum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kaiser Aluminum is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Kaiser Aluminum has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of February 2024 Kaiser Aluminum paid $ 0.77 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Is Fusion Fuel Green Stock Outpacing Its Industrial Products Peers This Year

Kaiser Aluminum Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kaiser Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kaiser Aluminum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kaiser Aluminum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments82.4 M

Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis

Kaiser Aluminum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kaiser Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kaiser Aluminum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kaiser Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Kaiser Aluminum Predictive Forecast Models

Kaiser Aluminum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kaiser Aluminum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kaiser Aluminum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Kaiser Aluminum

Checking the ongoing alerts about Kaiser Aluminum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kaiser Aluminum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kaiser Aluminum is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Kaiser Aluminum has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of February 2024 Kaiser Aluminum paid $ 0.77 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Is Fusion Fuel Green Stock Outpacing Its Industrial Products Peers This Year
When determining whether Kaiser Aluminum is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Kaiser Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Kaiser Aluminum Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Kaiser Aluminum Stock:
Check out Kaiser Aluminum Backtesting, Kaiser Aluminum Valuation, Kaiser Aluminum Correlation, Kaiser Aluminum Hype Analysis, Kaiser Aluminum Volatility, Kaiser Aluminum History as well as Kaiser Aluminum Performance.
For more information on how to buy Kaiser Stock please use our How to Invest in Kaiser Aluminum guide.
You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

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When running Kaiser Aluminum's price analysis, check to measure Kaiser Aluminum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kaiser Aluminum is operating at the current time. Most of Kaiser Aluminum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kaiser Aluminum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kaiser Aluminum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kaiser Aluminum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kaiser Aluminum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kaiser Aluminum. If investors know Kaiser will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kaiser Aluminum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.151
Dividend Share
3.08
Earnings Share
2.92
Revenue Per Share
193.046
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
The market value of Kaiser Aluminum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kaiser that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kaiser Aluminum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kaiser Aluminum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kaiser Aluminum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kaiser Aluminum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kaiser Aluminum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kaiser Aluminum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kaiser Aluminum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.