Kingsway Financial Services Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.33
| KFS Stock | USD 8.35 0.35 4.37% |
Closest to current price Kingsway long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Kingsway |
Kingsway Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 14.33
The tendency of Kingsway Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 14.33 or more in 90 days |
| 8.35 | 90 days | 14.33 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kingsway Financial to move over $ 14.33 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Kingsway Financial Services probability density function shows the probability of Kingsway Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kingsway Financial price to stay between its current price of $ 8.35 and $ 14.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 60.87 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Kingsway Financial Services has a beta of -0.0354. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Kingsway Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Kingsway Financial Services is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Kingsway Financial Services has an alpha of 0.0019, implying that it can generate a 0.001852 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Kingsway Financial Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Kingsway Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kingsway Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kingsway Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kingsway Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kingsway Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kingsway Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kingsway Financial Services, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kingsway Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Kingsway Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kingsway Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kingsway Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kingsway Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kingsway Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Kingsway Financial Services has 45.61 M in debt. Kingsway Financial has a current ratio of 0.9, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Kingsway to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Kingsway Financial Services has about 64.17 M in cash with (26.21 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.5. | |
| Kingsway Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Kingsway Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kingsway Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kingsway Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kingsway Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.7 M |
Kingsway Financial Technical Analysis
Kingsway Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kingsway Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kingsway Financial Services. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kingsway Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kingsway Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Kingsway Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kingsway Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kingsway Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kingsway Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kingsway Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kingsway Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kingsway Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kingsway Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Kingsway Financial Services has 45.61 M in debt. Kingsway Financial has a current ratio of 0.9, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Kingsway to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Kingsway Financial Services has about 64.17 M in cash with (26.21 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.5. | |
| Kingsway Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Kingsway Stock Analysis
When running Kingsway Financial's price analysis, check to measure Kingsway Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kingsway Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Kingsway Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kingsway Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kingsway Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kingsway Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.