Kempharm Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.0

KMPH -  USA Stock  

USD 10.75  0.24  2.18%

Kempharm's future price is the expected price of Kempharm instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Kempharm performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is estimated to decrease to -0.82. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to decrease to -3.76.

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Kempharm's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Kempharm. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Kempharm based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Kempharm over a specific time period. For example, KMPH210820C00010000 is a CALL option contract on Kempharm's common stock with a strick price of 10.0 expiring on 2021-08-20. The contract was last traded on 2021-07-28 at 15:04:25 for $1.4 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.1, and an ask price of $1.45. The implied volatility as of the 29th of July is 77.2711. View All Kempharm options

Closest to current price Kempharm long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please see Kempharm Backtesting, Kempharm Valuation, Kempharm Correlation, Kempharm Hype Analysis, Kempharm Volatility, Kempharm History as well as Kempharm Performance. Please specify Kempharm time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Kempharm odds to be computed.
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Kempharm Target Price Odds to finish over 19.0

The tendency of Kempharm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 19.00  or more in 90 days
 10.75 90 days 19.00  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kempharm to move over $ 19.00  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Kempharm probability density function shows the probability of Kempharm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kempharm price to stay between its current price of $ 10.75  and $ 19.00  at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.64 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Kempharm has a beta of 0.79. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kempharm average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kempharm will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2689, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Kempharm Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Kempharm

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kempharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kempharm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kempharm in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.1010.6814.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.5213.1016.68
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0019.0028.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.610.620.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kempharm. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kempharm's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kempharm's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kempharm.

Kempharm Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kempharm is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kempharm's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kempharm, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kempharm within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.27
β
Beta against DOW0.79
σ
Overall volatility
1.92
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Kempharm Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kempharm for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kempharm can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kempharm has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Kempharm was previously known as Kempharm and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol KMPHD.
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 23.32 M. Net Loss for the year was (54.75 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.98 M.
Kempharm currently holds about 75.92 M in cash with (2.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.66.
Kempharm has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 15.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from www.cmlviz.com: KMPH KemPharm Announces U.S. Launch Of Innovative ADHD Treatment Azstarys By Corium - CML News

Kempharm Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kempharm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kempharm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kempharm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out12.45%
Short Percent Of Float12.52%
Float Shares24.56M
Shares Short Prior Month3.21M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day520.68k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month838.98k
Date Short Interest28th of May 2021

Kempharm Technical Analysis

Kempharm's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kempharm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kempharm. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kempharm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Kempharm Predictive Forecast Models

Kempharm time-series forecasting models is one of many Kempharm's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Kempharm's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Kempharm

Checking the ongoing alerts about Kempharm for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kempharm help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Kempharm Alerts

Kempharm Alerts and Suggestions

Kempharm has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Kempharm was previously known as Kempharm and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol KMPHD.
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 23.32 M. Net Loss for the year was (54.75 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.98 M.
Kempharm currently holds about 75.92 M in cash with (2.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.66.
Kempharm has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 15.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from www.cmlviz.com: KMPH KemPharm Announces U.S. Launch Of Innovative ADHD Treatment Azstarys By Corium - CML News
Please see Kempharm Backtesting, Kempharm Valuation, Kempharm Correlation, Kempharm Hype Analysis, Kempharm Volatility, Kempharm History as well as Kempharm Performance. Note that the Kempharm information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Kempharm's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

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When running Kempharm price analysis, check to measure Kempharm's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kempharm is operating at the current time. Most of Kempharm's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kempharm's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kempharm's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kempharm to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Kempharm is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kempharm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kempharm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kempharm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kempharm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kempharm underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kempharm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kempharm value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kempharm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.